If Russia Wins: A Chilling Scenario for European Security

A modern book by German political scientist Carlo Masala, “If Russia Wins. The Scenario,” is generating significant discussion about the potential consequences of a Ukrainian defeat and the future of European security. Masala, a professor of international politics at the Bundeswehr University Munich and lecturer at the University of Munich [1], presents a stark warning about the erosion of the Western social welfare state and the demand for increased military preparedness in the face of a resurgent Russia.

The Erosion of Western Prosperity

Masala argues that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has fundamentally undermined the foundations of the Western social welfare model. He contends that Western democracies will be forced to re-evaluate spending priorities, shifting resources from social programs to military investments to counter the growing threat posed by Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Maintaining democratic principles, he suggests, will require substantial economic, social, and human effort.

The Narva Scenario: A Potential Flashpoint

The book details a hypothetical scenario where, following a peace deal in Ukraine, Russia turns its attention to the Baltic states. Masala posits that in March 2028, Russian forces could capture the Estonian border town of Narva and the Estonian island of Hiumjuma [1]. This potential invasion raises critical questions about NATO’s response and the willingness of member states to risk escalation, potentially even nuclear war.

Testing the NATO Alliance

Masala’s analysis explores the complex geopolitical dynamics that would unfold in such a crisis. He questions whether the United States would reaffirm its commitment to mutual defense, particularly as China potentially exploits the situation with maneuvers in Asia to divert attention from Russian aggression. The scenario serves as a stress test for the NATO alliance, challenging its decades-long foundation of trust and collective security.

Appeasement and Deterrence

The author emphasizes the dangers of appeasement, warning that allowing Russia to achieve its objectives would send a dangerous signal to the Kremlin. He urges European leaders to strengthen their resolve and prepare for the potential consequences of a Ukrainian surrender. The core question, as highlighted by commentary in publications like The Washington Post, is what lesson a Russian victory would teach the Kremlin.

Expert Reactions and Warnings

“If Russia Wins” has garnered attention from several prominent publications. The Economist described it as a “chilling warning” about the need for Europe to bolster its defenses [1]. The BBC noted the study as a serious warning for the West to begin negotiations regarding Russia’s future actions and the extent of US involvement in European defense. Newsweek concluded that the scenario predicts Russia’s victory will hinge on Ukraine’s capitulation, potentially leading to uncertain US involvement in Europe. Nordic Defense Review characterized the scenario as a test of alliance reform, defense readiness, and transatlantic solidarity, emphasizing that it’s not a war in 2028, but a crisis today that makes war inevitable tomorrow.

A Realistic, if Frightening, Vision

De Volkskrant, a Dutch newspaper, added that Masala’s vision of the future is “frighteningly realistic,” urging readers to heed the warning. The analysis underscores the importance of respecting treaties, maintaining a clear strategy, and demonstrating the political courage to deter authoritarian revisionism.

Context: The Invasion of Ukraine

The concerns raised by Masala’s work are rooted in the events of February 24, 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, falsely claiming that NATO posed a threat to Russia. In March 2023, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin for the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied territories.