Iran at a Crossroads: The Death of Khamenei and the Potential for Transformation
The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has ignited speculation about a potential period of profound transformation for the Islamic Republic. Killed alongside his wife in an Israeli missile strike last Saturday, his passing marks the end of a 37-year reign and has fueled comparisons to the fall of the Berlin Wall.
A Legacy of Intransigence
Ayatollah Khamenei, 86, held the highest position in Iran’s Islamic power structure since 1989, exceeding the duration of the Berlin Wall itself. As the senior religious authority within the system of velayat-e faqih – rule by Islamic jurisprudence established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution – he held ultimate authority over all state matters, including negotiations with the US regarding the nuclear program, the status of Israel, social reforms, and women’s rights. He consistently adopted a hardline stance on these issues.
A Personalized Leadership
Even as some analysts have suggested the Islamic Republic could survive a change in leadership, others argue Khamenei’s rule was deeply personalized. Former President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif reportedly alluded to obstruction from “higher powers” – widely understood to be Khamenei – when discussing failed attempts to moderate Iran’s policies and improve relations with the West.1
The Succession and Potential Instability
Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has emerged as a potential successor, but the circumstances surrounding his father’s death – a violent missile strike – create significant challenges. Naysan Rafati, a senior Iran analyst with the International Crisis Group, noted that any succession plan is now threatened, with potential targets for further attacks during the transition period.1
Signs of a Regime Under Strain
Recent events suggest the Iranian regime was already facing considerable strain. Khamenei’s funeral has been postponed due to fears of further attacks, and the Assembly of Experts – the body responsible for electing a new leader – convened remotely after its headquarters in Qom was bombed.1 Authorities have also increased pressure on political prisoners while releasing others on bail, and reports indicate security forces have fired upon homes displaying anti-regime slogans.
The Role of the IRGC
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which Khamenei reportedly empowered by granting it significant economic control, could play a crucial role in the aftermath. Some analysts suggest the IRGC might seek to redeem itself by easing domestic repression and appealing to nationalist sentiments, invoking the spirit of resistance against foreign powers.1
A Dissipated Fear
Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University, argues that Khamenei’s intransigence and the violent suppression of protests have eroded the regime’s ability to maintain power through fear. He suggests the regime lacks the necessary apparatus of oppression and that the population is no longer sufficiently frightened to be controlled.1
Echoes of 1989
The death of Khamenei is being viewed by some, including Senator Lindsey Graham, as a potential “Berlin Wall moment” for Iran. Graham stated that if the US provides support to protesters, it could mark a pivotal moment in the 21st century, similar to the fall of the Soviet Union.234