Iran’s Leadership Transition: Navigating Uncertainty After Khamenei
The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, has plunged the Islamic Republic into a critical period of transition. With no designated successor, the country faces questions about internal stability and potential regional escalation. This transition marks only the second such event since the 1979 revolution, following the death of Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989.
The Selection Process: Role of the Assembly of Experts
Under Iran’s constitution, the 88-member Assembly of Experts is responsible for appointing the next Supreme Leader. These Shiite clerics are popularly elected every eight years, but their candidacies are vetted by the Guardian Council, Iran’s constitutional watchdog Assembly of Experts – Wikipedia. The Guardian Council has a history of disqualifying candidates, as seen with the barring of former President Hassan Rouhani from running for the Assembly in March 2024 Gulf News.
The Assembly also has the power to dismiss the Supreme Leader if deemed incapable. In the event of a delay in selecting a novel leader, a temporary leadership council can assume the duties of the office. This council would consist of the President, the head of the judiciary, and a member of the Guardian Council chosen by the Expediency Council Gulf News.
Potential Candidates and Challenges
Prior to his death in a helicopter crash in May 2024, hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi was considered a potential successor News18. However, with Raisi’s passing, Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the late Supreme Leader, has emerged as a possible contender, despite lacking prior government experience News18.
A father-to-son transfer of power could provoke significant opposition, both from Iranians critical of clerical rule and from within the system itself. Some may view such a move as un-Islamic and reminiscent of the pre-1979 monarchy News18.
The Powers of the Supreme Leader
The Supreme Leader holds paramount authority within Iran’s political system, with final say over all matters of state. This includes serving as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a paramilitary organization designated as a terrorist organization by the United States in 2019 Gulf News. The IRGC, which leads the “Axis of Resistance” – a network of regional allies – also wields considerable economic power within Iran.
A Historical Precedent
The current transition follows the 1989 succession after the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. Khamenei was elevated from the presidency to the Supreme Leadership following Khomeini’s death CNBC. This latest transition occurs after a 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025.