Russia Benefits as Iran War Disrupts Global Order

The conflict in Iran has resulted in civilian casualties, displacement, soaring oil prices, and a political crisis, but Russia appears to be an early beneficiary, profiting from the economic and geopolitical fallout while others bear the costs. Moscow has maintained a friendly relationship with Tehran, condemning the U.S. And Israel’s attack as an “unprovoked act of armed aggression.”

Russia’s Emerging Advantages

Analysts suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his advisors likely view the war in Iran as serving Russia’s interests in the short term: higher energy prices, a distraction from the war in Ukraine, and the potential for the U.S. To become entangled in another Middle Eastern conflict.

U.S. Lifts Restrictions on Russian Oil

In response to rising gas prices, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a 30-day waiver on tariffs imposed on Indian imports of Russian oil and is considering further lifting of sanctions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated the measure was “deliberately short-term” and wouldn’t significantly benefit Russia, as it only authorized transactions for oil already in transit. However, Russian officials claim a “significant increase in demand” for Russian energy products due to the war in Iran.

Rising Oil Prices

Sanctions had previously lowered Russia’s oil and gas revenues to around 20% of its federal budget, down from 45% in 2021. The disruption to global oil supplies caused by the war in Iran has led to a spike in oil prices, allowing Russia to sell its oil at a premium of $4-$5 per barrel, compared to a $10-$13 discount before the attacks. This could provide a significant windfall for Moscow.

Impact on Ukraine’s Defense

The war in Iran is also impacting Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. The U.S. Is utilizing Patriot air defense systems, previously supplied to Ukraine, to defend against Iranian missiles and drones. European Union Defense and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius warned that Ukraine’s outlook was “critical” and that the E.U. Would necessitate to rapidly increase missile production. Ukraine has offered to assist Gulf countries in intercepting Iranian drones using its domestically produced Sting system.

Intelligence Sharing Allegations

Reports from the Washington Post and Associated Press indicate that Russia has shared targeting intelligence on U.S. Military assets with Iran. While White House officials haven’t denied the reports, they have downplayed Russia’s influence. President Donald Trump dismissed the reports as a “stupid question.”

Analysts suggest that any effort to complicate or degrade America’s projection of power benefits Russia’s geopolitical position.