A typical Italian family on an indexed free-market contract could pay nearly 51% more for electricity between November and December than in the same months last year, according to estimates from Facile.it. Combined with the increases already recorded in autumn, the extra cost across September through December could reach €99 for a household consuming 2,000 kWh a year.
La Nuova Sardegna reported that the government’s new Decreto Bollette — the package of measures aimed at energy bills — continues to be postponed, and while its real impact remains unclear, households are facing an expensive winter.
September and October Bills Already Up About 40%
Facile.it built its estimates on a reference family with annual consumption of 2,000 kWh. For September and October it used actual prices recorded by the Gestore dei Mercati Energetici (GME), Italy’s energy market operator; for November and December it used forward energy prices processed by EEX.
In September the reference family’s electricity bill came to €65, up €17 from a year earlier. In October spending rose to €73, an increase of €22 on an annual basis, Adnkronos reported.
November and December Forecasts: PUN to Reach €258 per MWh
According to Facile.it’s projections, the PUN — Italy’s national single wholesale electricity price — should touch €258 per megawatt-hour in November, a 121% jump compared with November 2025, then settle at €247 per MWh in December, up 114% year-on-year.
If those forecasts are confirmed, the reference family’s bill would climb to €84 in November and about €91 in December — roughly €59 more than the same two months last year, Adnkronos reported.
Wholesale Prices Climb Again on November 6
The PUN stood at 0.28178 euros per kWh, or 281.78 euros per MWh, on Friday, November 6, up 1.49% from the previous day, Facile.it reported. ComparaSemplice put the day-on-day rise at 4.14 euros per MWh and noted the price sat above the seven-day average of 274.40 euros per MWh, with an intraday peak of 370.09 euros per MWh at 7 a.m. and a low of 226.15 euros per MWh at 4 a.m.
Gas moved higher as well: the PSV, Italy’s reference gas price, reached 0.99455 euros per standard cubic meter on November 6, up 1.94% from the day before, according to Facile.it.
Peakload hit 296.78 euros per MWh and off-peak 266.78, with MGP trading volume at 1,058,360 MWh. Zonal prices were 282.01 euros per MWh across most of Italy, while Sicily and Sardinia recorded 278.78.
A Year of Steadily Rising Energy Costs
HDblog.it reported that the PUN averaged 230.82 euros per MWh in October, up 11.2% from January and 74% since the start of the year; in October 2025 the PUN had been 111.04 euros per MWh. The gas benchmark, the IG Index, averaged 88.38 euros per MWh in October, up 12% from September and 133% from January, HDblog.it said.
The IG Index averaged 32.98 euros per MWh in October 2025, 168% below this October’s 88.38, with HDblog.it citing geopolitical tensions in Russia and the Middle East as the driver.
How PUN Affects Variable-Rate Electricity Costs
What is the PUN, and why does it matter for my bill?
The PUN (Prezzo Unico Nazionale) is Italy’s national single wholesale electricity price published by the GME. Households on indexed contracts in the free market pay rates tied to it, so when the PUN rises, their bills follow; customers on fixed-price tariffs stay locked in for their contract period.
Which households are most exposed to the November and December increases?
Facile.it’s figures are based on a typical household using 2,000 kWh per year on such a contract.
What is the Decreto Bollette, and when will it take effect?
It is the government decree on energy bills whose approval keeps slipping; La Nuova Sardegna reported that its actual impact on households is still unknown.
December Ahead and the Unresolved Decree
The next dated marker on record is December, when the PUN is forecast at €247 per MWh and the reference family’s bill at about €91. Whether the delayed Decreto Bollette changes that picture remains the open question as winter sets in.