Subtropical High Pressure Dominates Southern Europe, Bringing Limited Rainfall

A strong subtropical high-pressure system is firmly established over southern Europe, creating a persistent atmospheric shield. While some minor disturbances are expected, particularly over Sardinia and Sicily, widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated in the coming days.

Current Conditions and the Subtropical High

The current high-pressure system is centered around 1032 hPa. Unlike typical summer patterns, this anticyclone exhibits vulnerabilities, allowing for occasional incursions of Atlantic currents. However, these intrusions are generally weakened, resulting in localized rather than widespread precipitation. Subtropical highs, as defined by Britannica, are semi-permanent regions of high atmospheric pressure located between 20° and 40° latitude.

Limited Rainfall Expected

Over the next week, only Sardinia is expected to receive notable rainfall. Sicily may experience some grazing showers. Elsewhere across the Iberian Peninsula and the rest of the Mediterranean, conditions will remain largely dry. Morning fogs and low clouds are likely, giving way to gradual clearings. Temperatures will remain consistently above seasonal averages.

Atlantic Disturbances and a Shifting Pattern

A new depression front is approaching from the Atlantic, associated with a deep vortex developing between the Balearic Islands and the Spanish coast. This system will bring a change between Thursday, March 5th, and Friday, March 6th, increasing cloud cover and bringing more insistent rainfall to Sardinia and parts of Sicily.

Long-Range Outlook: Continued Dryness

Looking ahead 12 days, the overall pattern suggests limited widespread rainfall. Sardinia remains the region most susceptible to precipitation. The Azores High, also known as the Bermuda High, plays a significant role in influencing weather patterns across this region, contributing to the aridity of areas like the Sahara Desert and summer drought conditions in the Mediterranean Basin. This high-pressure system circulates clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere.

Impact on Weather Extremes

Subtropical ridges, like the one currently affecting Europe, can be key drivers of water scarcity in southern Europe. Research indicates that these lower-latitude high-pressure systems contribute to drought conditions in the region.

Potential for Tropical Cyclogenesis

The subtropical high can also influence the development of tropical cyclones. The clockwise circulation can propel African easterly waves towards the Caribbean and Bahamas, potentially favoring tropical cyclogenesis, particularly during hurricane season.