Japan Deploys Long-Range Missiles, Shifts Regional Power Dynamics

Japan has deployed upgraded Type-12 surface-to-ship missiles near the East China Sea, a move analysts say could be interpreted by Beijing as crossing a “strategic threshold.” The deployment is expected to have major implications for regional deterrence and China’s operational planning in the East China Sea and around Taiwan.

Missile Deployment Details

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara confirmed on Monday, March 15, 2026, that the upgraded missiles would be deployed at Camp Kengun in Kumamoto prefecture by the end of March . Army vehicles carrying the first batch of missile launchers were reportedly spotted arriving at the base past midnight, according to the South China Morning Post . This follows a decision by the Japanese Ministry of Defence in 2024 to advance the missile deployment schedule by one year .

The Type-12 missile, developed and produced by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, has an extended range of approximately 1,000 km (621 miles), a significant increase from the original range of 200 km . This extended range allows Japan to cover almost all of the East China Sea from Kyushu and potentially reach coastal cities in mainland China . The missile is intended to deter Chinese naval vessels in a potential conflict scenario.

China’s Response

China has sharply criticised the deployment. Jiang Bin, spokesperson for the Chinese defence ministry, stated that “right-wing forces” in Japan had been “accelerating moves towards remilitarisation” . He added that Tokyo’s deployment of long-range offensive weapons with ranges exceeding Japanese territory “completely strips away the disguises of an exclusively defence-oriented policy and self-defence” . Jiang further described the move as a “dangerous tendency” and a “blatant and real threat” to regional peace and security .

Strategic Implications

Experts note the strategic impact of the deployment. John Bradford, executive director of the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies and former US Navy officer, said the deployment ensures Japan can threaten Chinese naval ships throughout the East China Sea . He explained that this creates a “mutual sea denial” capability, potentially making both sides hesitant to utilize force .

Ray Powell, director of the SeaLight maritime transparency programme and retired US Air Force colonel, said the deployment “slots” into a growing allied missile network along the “first island chain” . This complicates Beijing’s military calculations and enhances Japan’s role in alliance burden-sharing .

Broader Defence Build-Up

The missile deployment comes amid an ongoing dispute with Beijing and a broader trend of increased Japanese military spending. Tensions flared after Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi suggested in November that Japan could take military action in the event of an attack on Taiwan, prompting protests from Beijing . Japan’s defence budget has reached 2 per cent of GDP, and the cabinet is revising security and defence policies to strengthen autonomous defence against China, North Korea, and Russia .

Japan also plans to deploy Type-03 medium-range surface-to-air missiles on the westernmost island of Yonaguni, just east of Taiwan, by 2031 .

Liselotte Odgaard, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, described the Type-12 deployment as “one of the most consequential shifts in Japan’s post-war defence posture” . She believes it will raise the cost of an attack on Japanese territory and complicate China’s planning, potentially leading to an arms race in northeast Asia .

What are Japan’s Type-12 missiles?

The upgraded Type-12 anti-ship missile is a domestically developed weapon designed to give Japan the ability to strike hostile naval targets at significantly longer distances. The upgraded version is expected to reach around 900 km or more . The missile also features a low-observable design, aimed at reducing the chances of detection by enemy radar .

The upgraded Type-12 is intended to be deployed across multiple launch platforms, including ground-based launchers, ships and aircraft .