US-Iran Tensions Trigger Indonesian Stock Market Concerns

Jakarta – Escalating tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran are casting a shadow over global equity markets, with the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) experiencing a significant correction. Concerns over potential disruptions to energy prices and a shift in global investor risk profiles are driving the downturn.

JCI Plummets Amidst Geopolitical Uncertainty

On Monday, March 2, 2026, the JCI closed at 8,016.83, a decline of 2.66% or 218.66 points. Trading volume was high, reaching IDR 29.83 trillion, with 56.60 billion shares traded across 3.65 million transactions. Despite 108 shares rising, 674 declined, and 41 remained unchanged.

Foreign Investor Sentiment Shifts

Foreign investors recorded net sales of IDR 631.01 billion in all markets, with IDR 490.53 billion in the regular market and IDR 140.49 billion in negotiated and cash markets. Several key stocks experienced significant selling pressure from foreign investors, exacerbating the JCI’s correction.

Top Stocks Under Foreign Selling Pressure (March 2, 2026)

• PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk. (MEDC) – IDR 528.10 billion
• PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA) – IDR 522.3 billion
• PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (BBNI) – IDR 119.04 billion
• PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. (BMRI) – IDR 118.51 billion
• PT Elnusa Tbk. (ELSA) – IDR 76.76 billion
• PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk. (GOLD) – IDR 69.85 billion
• PT Vale Indonesia Tbk. (INCO) – IDR 59.28 billion
• PT Hartadinata Abadi Tbk. (HRTA) – IDR 57.98 billion
• PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk. (CUAN) – IDR 43.69 billion
• PT Bumi Resources Tbk. (BUMI) – IDR 41.87 billion

Analysts Predict Potential Further Decline

Analysts at Phintraco Sekuritas suggest the JCI could fall to 8,000–7,800 if it breaks below the 8,100 level. The potential for a rebound exists if global sentiment improves and domestic economic conditions remain stable.

Domestic Factors Offer Potential Support

Investors are awaiting key domestic economic indicators, including the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, January trade balance data, February 2026 inflation figures, and foreign exchange reserve data. A reduction in US trade tariffs from 19% to 15% could also provide a positive catalyst, particularly for export-oriented sectors.

Recent JCI Performance

During the final week of February, the JCI declined 1.19%, closing at 8,235 on February 27, 2026.