Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB’s decision to leave key rates unchanged at the September policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
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ECB press conference key takeaways
Table of Contents
“Growth shows resilience of domestic demand.”
“GDP data reflects Q1 front-loading.”
“Investment should be underpinned by government spending.”
“Higher tariffs, stronger Euro, competition to hold growth back.”
“Headwinds on growth should fade next year.”
“Indicators of underlying inflation consistent with our 2% target.”
“Forward-looking indicators suggest that wage growth will moderate further.”
“Moderating wage growth to keep lid on domestic price pressures.”
“core inflation to drop on declining labor cost pressures, stronger Euro.”
“Risks to economic growth more balanced.”
“Outlook for inflation is more uncertain than usual.”
“Stronger Euro could bring inflation down more than expected.”
“”Disinflationary process is over.”
“We are still in a good place.”
“Inflation is where we want it to be.”
“Domestic economy is showing resilience.”
“Not on a predetermined path.”
“Trade uncertainty has diminished.”
“All governments need to operate on basis of EU fiscal framework.”
“Minimal deviation from target will not necessarily justify movement.”
“Euro Area sovereign bond markets are orderly, functioning with smooth liquidity.”
This section below was published at 12:15 GMT to cover the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcements and the immediate market reaction.
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on thursday that it left key rates unchanged following the September policy meeting, as expected. With this decision, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations, the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility stood at 2.15%, 2.4% and 2%, respectively.
ECB policy statement key takeaways
“Inflation is currently at around 2% medium-term target and the ECB’s assessment of inflation outlook is broadly unchanged.”
“ECB staff projections present a picture of inflation similar to that projected in June.”
“For inflation excluding energy and food, ECB expects an average of 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.”
“ECB will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting appr
Currency Market Snapshot: Key Fluctuations Today
Here’s a quick look at how major currencies are performing today, based on recent market data:
USD: The US Dollar is experiencing mixed results, with fluctuations ranging from -0.74% to 0.37% across different pairings. Notably, it’s down 0.49% against the Australian Dollar and 0.24% against the Japanese Yen, but up 0.37% against the Swiss Franc.
EUR: The Euro is largely facing downward pressure, with declines observed against several currencies. It’s down 1.08% against the Japanese Yen and 0.79% against the Canadian Dollar, with a more moderate 0.34% decrease against the US Dollar. A slight gain of 0.02% is seen against the Swiss Franc.
GBP: The British Pound is showing some positive movement, with gains of 0.05% against the US Dollar and 0.41% against the Euro. However,it’s experiencing losses against other currencies,including a 0.68% drop against the Japanese Yen and 0.39% against the Canadian Dollar.
Currency Movements and ECB Rate Decision Anticipation
Here’s a snapshot of recent currency performance against each other, represented as percentage changes:
| Currency | USD | JPY | GBP | AUD | CAD | EUR | CHF | Other | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | – | 0.29% | 0.95% | ||||||
| NZD | 0.49% | 0.79% | 0.39% | 0.41% | 0.81% | -0.29% | 0.66% | ||
| CHF | -0.21% | 0.14% | -0.27% | -0.45% | 0.17% | -0.95% | -0.66% |
Note: The heat map displays percentage changes between major currencies. The base currency is from the left column, and the quote currency from the top row. For example, a value at the intersection of Euro (left) and US Dollar (top) represents the percentage change of EUR/USD.
ECB Rate Decision Preview
The European Central Bank (ECB) is poised to maintain key rates for the second consecutive meeting this Thursday. However, all eyes are on potential signals regarding the future trajectory of interest rates, particularly given recent stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation and growth figures.
The ECB’s policy announcements, alongside updated economic forecasts, are expected to considerably impact the EUR/USD exchange rate. Traders will be intently analyzing the policy statement and comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde for clues as to whether the central bank has concluded its tightening cycle.
Key Timings:
* 12:15 GMT: Interest Rate Decision Declaration
* 12:45 GMT: ECB President Christine Lagarde’s Press Conference.
EUR/USD Faces Key Tests Amidst ECB Projections
Conversely, intense selling pressure could be faced by EUR/USD if the quarterly staff projections unexpectedly show lower growth and inflation for this year.
The downside could also unfold if any hints on the direction of the next interest rate move are refrained from by the ECB.
“EUR/USD challenges the critical 21-day simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1678. Though, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator holds firm above 50, signalling that upside bias remains intact for the main currency pair despite the latest pullback from over two-month highs.”
“On the upside, the nine-week highs at 1.1780 could be retested by buyers, above which the July high of 1.1830 will be targeted. further up, all eyes will be on the 1.1900 round figure. Conversely, a sustained break below the 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA confluence support zone near 1.1670 will open up a fresh downside toward the 1.1600 threshold. The August 27 low of 1.1574 could act as a tough nut to crack for sellers,” Dhwani added.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world,accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions,followed by EUR/JPY (4%),EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).