Latvia Grapples with Demographic Crisis: Population Decline a Major Concern
Riga, Latvia – A closed-door discussion held at Rīga Castle on March 6, 2026, brought together Latvian politicians, demographers, academics, and other stakeholders to address the country’s escalating demographic challenges. The meeting, instigated and hosted by President Edgars Rinkēvičs, aimed to foster open dialogue and avoid political posturing, according to Latvian Radio’s reporting on the event.
Projected Population Loss
President Rinkēvičs highlighted the severity of the situation, warning that if current demographic trends persist, Latvia could experience a further 15% population decrease by 2040. This translates to a loss of approximately 270,000 residents, bringing the total population down to 1.5 or 1.6 million from the current 1.8 million.
“If these demographic trends continue, then by 2040 we will have an even greater reduction [in population]. We will actually lose another 15% of the country’s population, which will be another minus 270,000 [people]. If we are currently talking about 1.8 million, then at that point we will already be talking about 1.5 or 1.6 million Latvian residents,” stated President Rinkēvičs.
Long-Term Solutions and Policy Focus
Acknowledging the lack of quick fixes, President Rinkēvičs emphasized the importance of consistent implementation of family support policies, investments in healthcare, and housing support. He expressed hope that the first positive results of these efforts might be visible within the next three to five years.
“At the same time, there is no magic wand, as we well understand, that could solve all the problems in one, two or three years. If [what] we have started this year, if we consistently continue the family support policy, investments in health and support in housing, then perhaps we will observe the first results in the next three to five years,” the President said.
European Fertility Rates at Historic Lows
The discussion at Rīga Castle coincided with the release of Eurostat data revealing a concerning trend across Europe. In 2024, 3.55 million babies were born in the EU, a 3.3% decrease from the 3.67 million births recorded in 2023. The total fertility rate for 2024 stood at 1.34 live births per woman, the lowest rate since Eurostat began collecting data in 2001. LSM English
Regional Variations in Fertility Rates
Within the EU, Bulgaria recorded the highest total fertility rate in 2024 with 1.72 live births per woman, followed by France (1.61) and Slovenia (1.52). Conversely, Malta exhibited the lowest fertility rate at 1.01, alongside Spain (1.10) and Lithuania (1.11). Latvia’s rate of 1.24 was higher than both Lithuania and Estonia (1.18). LSM English
Eurostat data indicates that fertility rates across the EU generally declined from the mid-1960s through the turn of the century. A brief period of recovery occurred in the early 2000s, but this trend reversed in 2010, followed by fluctuations and a continued decline until reaching a historic low in 2024.
Previous Discussions and Ongoing Concerns
This marks the second year President Rinkēvičs has convened a meeting on demographic issues at Rīga Castle. Last year, he emphasized the importance of security and national defense in influencing family planning decisions, noting that global events and uncertainties were causing families to reconsider having children. BB.LV