Medicare Advantage Growth Slows for Second Year, Raising Questions About Future of Popular Plans
Medicare Advantage, a popular alternative to traditional Medicare, continues to enroll more seniors and individuals with disabilities, but the pace of growth is slowing significantly. This deceleration raises concerns about the long-term viability and sustainability of these plans.
Enrollment Figures Show Marked Slowdown
As of February 1, 2026, approximately 35.5 million people are enrolled in a Medicare Advantage plan, a roughly 3% increase from the 34.4 million enrolled at the same time in 2025, according to recent federal data analyzed by STAT. During the annual enrollment period (October 15 – December 7), enrollment growth stagnated, increasing by only 1%.
This represents a substantial decline compared to the growth rates observed between 2017 and 2024, which ranged from 7% to 10% annually, as previously reported by STAT.
Industry Response and Concerns
The slowdown in growth comes as scrutiny increases regarding the business practices of Medicare Advantage plans, particularly those of large players like UnitedHealth Group, Humana, and Aetna. Concerns center around potential issues with denying necessary care and manipulating risk adjustment scores to maximize profits.
Recent reports highlight how UnitedHealth Group has utilized its own research, funded by its Optum subsidiary, to counter criticism and influence the debate surrounding Medicare Advantage. This research, often co-authored by Optum employees and based on data from UnitedHealth’s own clinics, aims to portray Medicare Advantage as providing superior care.
The Role of Research and Lobbying
The lobbying group America’s Physician Groups has as well promoted studies suggesting that physician-led Medicare Advantage arrangements deliver the best care. However, these studies have also faced scrutiny due to their funding source and potential biases.
Experts caution that research funded by organizations with a vested interest in the outcome should be interpreted with caution, as it may be subject to misinterpretation or manipulation. Vertical integration within healthcare systems, where insurers also own provider groups and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), can further compromise the integrity of research and potentially lead to conflicts of interest.
Looking Ahead
The slowing growth of Medicare Advantage, coupled with increased scrutiny of its practices, suggests a potential turning point for the program. Policymakers and regulators will likely face increasing pressure to address concerns about cost, quality of care, and transparency within Medicare Advantage plans. The future of the program will depend on finding a balance between innovation, affordability, and ensuring access to high-quality care for beneficiaries.