More children per woman, more workers at 65 years of age and 250,000 immigrants per year: Escrivá’s recipe for pensions

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The system of Social Security, After the pension reform carried out within the framework of the Recovery Plan, it will be sustainable. It is the main message that The Government has sent to Brussels in its report Projections of public spending on pensions in Spain, published this Tuesday and which complies with the milestone 410 of the Plan and the pension reform is completed.

According to the minister José Luis Escriváalthough 14.7% of the Gross Domestic Product in 2050 must be allocated to pension payment, This will not prevent the system from being sustainable, since the measures approved with the reform will report the equivalent of 1.8% of GDP in additional income, hence the threshold of 13.3% of GDP of “spending” will not be exceeded. net” that the reform itself has set as a worrying level, and at which more painful corrective measures would be activated.

But for these estimates of income and expenses to be met, the scenery that the Ministry projects for the coming decades in Spain.

In the plane macroeconomicassume that the Spanish economy will grow by 2.1% annually in real terms until 2040and a 1.5% between 2041 and 2050; that inflation will remain in the environment of the 2% from 2030 to 2070, without any unexpected event that pushes prices up – as has happened in recent years due to the pandemic or the war in Ukraine – and that the unemployment rate It will decrease until it falls below 10% in 2030 and 6% from 2045, a level at which it will stabilize thereafter.

At the demographic level, they consider different assumptions. On the one hand, that the fertility rate will rise from the current 1.22 children per woman to 1.36 by the year 2050, in line with other European countries with which they believe we will converge. There is no specific reason why the Executive assumes that the birth rate will rebound, they simply believe that Spain will tend to become more and more similar to the countries with which it shares an economic and social model, despite the differences that exist in the labor market. This increase, however, would only lead us to have a rate equivalent to 95% of the European average.

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