Mortgage Market Hits Record $2.41 Trillion in November
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The mortgage market reached a new peak in november, growing to $2.41 trillion, driven by increasing property prices. analysis of the latest APRA monthly banking statistics reveals a 0.67% increase in the value of residential mortgages held by banks in November, representing a 6.36% rise year-on-year.
CBA led the growth in dollar terms, adding $4.6 billion to its portfolio – a 0.76% monthly increase. Macquarie Bank also demonstrated strong performance, with a $3.6 billion increase (2.32%), contributing to an almost 24% annual increase.
In contrast, ANZ experienced its smallest monthly increase since April 2022, adding only $189 million (0.06%) in November.
Residential mortgages from authorised deposit-taking institutions
| bank | Amount | Market share | Monthly change | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBA | $611.5 billion | 25% | +0.76% | +6.51% |
| Westpac | $498.5 billion | 21% | +0.75% | +3.94% |
| NAB | $341.7 billion | 14% | +0.45% | +5.45% |
| ANZ | $321.5 billion | 13% | +0.06% | +4.65% |
| macquarie | $160.8 billion | 7% | +2.32% | +23.92% |
| All loans (ADIs) | $2.41 trillion | 100% | +0.67% | +6.36% |
Australian Property Price Forecasts: 2026 Unit & House Price Projections
Here’s a look at projected median property price increases for major Australian cities in 2026, based on Westpac forecasts as of December 2025, and data from Canstar and the Cotality home Value Index. Figures assume house prices will rise in line with dwelling forecasts, with anticipated growth rates of 5% (sydney), 7% (Melbourne), 6% (Brisbane & Adelaide), 8% (Perth), and 4% (hobart).
Houses: Projected Increase to median Prices in 2026 – Westpac Forecast
| City | Today (end 2025) | End 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | $1,018,131 | $1,075,761 | +$57,630 |
| Hobart | $768,376 | $799,111 | +$30,735 |
Units: Projected Increase to median Prices in 2026 – Westpac Forecast
| City | Today (end 2025) | End 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | $901,314 | $946,380 | +$45,066 |
| Melbourne | $640,391 | $685,218 | +$44,827 |
| Brisbane | $807,161 | $855,591 | +$48,430 |
| Perth | $677,722 | $731,940 | +$54,218 |
| Adelaide | $660,644 | $700,283 | +$39,639 |
Source: Canstar.Westpac property price forecasts Dec 2025, Cotality Home Value Index, 31 December 2025 with prices forecast to rise – Syd: 5%, Melb: 7%; Bris: 6%; Perth: 8%; adel: 6%; Hob: 4% Assumes house prices rise in line with dwelling forecasts.
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How Much Can I Borrow? A Guide for First-Time Buyers (2026)
Buying your first home is a meaningful milestone, and understanding how much you can borrow is a crucial first step. This guide provides a general overview of borrowing capacity in Australia, based on current financial year (2025-2026) tax calculations, assuming minimal expenses, no existing debts, and no dependents. It’s critically important to remember that thes are estimates, and your actual borrowing power will vary depending on your individual circumstances and the policies of different lenders. Borrowers should seek personal financial advice before making any decisions.
Understanding the Key Factors
Lenders assess your borrowing capacity based on several key factors. the primary ones are your income, expenses, and the current interest rate environment. They want to be confident you can comfortably repay the loan, even if interest rates rise.
Income
Your gross annual income is the starting point. Lenders will typically look at your stable, verifiable income sources, such as salary, wages, or self-employment income. They may also consider bonuses or commissions, but often with a conservative approach.
Expenses
Lenders meticulously scrutinize your expenses.They’ll consider both essential living costs and discretionary spending. For the purposes of this guide, we’re assuming minimal expenses. Though, lenders will typically factor in:
- Rent or mortgage payments (if applicable)
- Utilities (electricity, gas, water)
- Transportation costs (car payments, fuel, public transport)
- Food and groceries
- Healthcare expenses
- Insurance premiums
- Entertainment and leisure
Interest Rates & The Buffer
Interest rates substantially impact your borrowing capacity. Higher rates meen lower borrowing amounts. Lenders also apply a ‘buffer’ – an additional percentage added to the loan interest rate to account for potential future rate increases. This buffer is crucial for ensuring you can still afford repayments if rates go up. As of January 5, 2026, the average standard variable home loan interest rate is approximately 6.5% (Finder, January 2026). Lenders typically apply a buffer of at least 2.5% to 3%, meaning they assess your ability to repay at around 9% to 9.5%.
Estimating Borrowing Capacity (2026)
Here’s a rough estimate of borrowing capacity based on different annual income levels, using a 3% buffer (9.5% interest rate) and current tax brackets (2025-2026 financial year). These calculations exclude the Medicare Levy and assume a single borrower with no dependents or existing debts. These are *estimates only* and should not be taken as financial advice.
| Annual Income | Estimated Maximum Borrowing Capacity |
|---|---|
| $60,000 | $240,000 – $280,000 |
| $80,000 | $320,000 – $380,000 |
| $100,000 | $400,000 – $480,000 |
| $120,000 | $480,000 – $580,000 |
| $150,000 | $600,000 – $720,000 |
| $200,000 | $800,000 – $960,000 |
Note: These figures are approximate. Lenders use elegant calculations that consider a wide range of factors. the borrowing capacity range reflects variations between lenders and individual circumstances.