This week’s much-awaited jobs report has not provided the answers experts were waiting for, suggesting there is no clear winner in sight in the “tug of war between the labor market adn the mortgage market” expected to play out next year.
The U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November after losing 105,000 in October, according to data released on Tuesday by the Bureau of labor Statistics, with the private sector reporting the most gains. The unemployment rate in the same month ticked up to a four-year high of 4.6 percent.
“In this mid-month release of employment data, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is reporting evidence of a weakening labor market,” Luminous MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
“The report comes with a few asterisks, and we are going to need more data to get a clear picture about the overall health of the labor market. For the 2026 housing market, it is going to be a tug of war between the labor market and the mortgage market,” she added.
## Why It Matters
With the current uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy, the jobs report is being watched closely by experts-especially those at the Federal Reserve, which has to decide whether to continue cutting rates next year. This, in turn, influences the direction taken by mortgage rates.
Almost all economic reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, however, were delayed by the 43-day government shutdown, which ended last month after becoming the longest in U.S. history. In October, no unemployment rate was published for the first time as 1948.
## What To Know
The country is navigating economic uncertainty due to the recent slowdown and the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs. But the latest jobs report did not provide much more clarity, experts say.
“According to the BLS report, the U.S. lost over 100,000 jobs in October, largely driven by a sharp decline in federal government employment. the September employment numbers were also revised downward slightly,” Sturtevant said.
“Employment bounced back somewhat in November, with employers adding 64,000 jobs last month. Still, the November employment figures point to slower labor market conditions. The unemployment rate in November was 4.6 percent, up from 4.4% in September, and the highest level in nearly four years.”
According to Redfin’s head of economics research, Chen Zhao, mortgage rates are likely to remain unchanged following the release of the October and November data this week, which shows a weakening job market that has yet to stabilize.
“The fed has a high bar for further rate cu
US Jobs Growth Slows in December, Raising Questions About Economic Outlook
The US economy added 175,000 jobs in December, according to the latest employment report released Friday, marking a slowdown from the 292,000 jobs added in november, as reported by the bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%, while average hourly earnings increased 0.1% for the month and 4.1% over the year.
Newsweek reports that economists are analyzing the data for clues about the future direction of the economy, especially in light of ongoing inflation and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Expert Reactions:
Gbenga Ajilore, Chief Economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, stated that the labor market continues to show weakness alongside rising costs. He attributed these rising costs to “the administration’s harmful tariffs and cuts from the megabill that is taking away food assistance from millions of people and taking away premium tax credit enhancements that have helped people afford health care.”
Alex Jacquez, Chief of Policy and Advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, argued that the jobs report confirms a stalling economy under the current administration. Jacquez stated, “Far from sparking a manufacturing renaissance, Trump’s reckless trade agenda is bleeding working class jobs, forcing layoffs, and raising prices for businesses and consumers alike.”
Looking Ahead:
According to Newsweek, economists anticipate that cooling economic conditions could lead to lower mortgage rates in 2026, potentially boosting homebuying activity. Though, concerns about job security could simultaneously dampen housing demand, creating an uncertain outlook.
Comerica forecasts the Federal Reserve to begin cutting the federal funds target rate by a quarter of a percent at their January 28 meeting, with expectations for a cumulative three-quarters of a percent reduction in rates throughout 2026.
Related reading