Gilgeous-Alexander Favored to Secure Back-to-Back MVP Awards, But Wembanyama and Doncic Loom

With less than a month remaining in the 2025-26 NBA regular season, Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the clear frontrunner to win the league’s Most Valuable Player (MVP) award. However, a late surge from San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama and Los Angeles Lakers star Luka Dončić presents a potential challenge to SGA’s bid for consecutive MVP honors.

Current MVP Odds

As of March 20, 2026, DraftKings Sportsbook lists the MVP odds as follows:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -1100
• Victor Wembanyama: +2000
• Nikola Jokic: +2500
• Luka Dončić: +3500
• Jaylen Brown: +10000
• Donovan Mitchell: +50000
• Anthony Edwards: +50000
• Kawhi Leonard: +100000
• Jalen Brunson: +100000

SGA Remains the Frontrunner

Gilgeous-Alexander is the justifiable favorite, leading the Thunder to the top spot in the Western Conference. He currently boasts the No. 16 player efficiency rating (PER) in NBA history for the 2025-26 season, shooting over 55% from the field while averaging over 31 points per game. He also leads the NBA in win shares with 13.5 this season.

Despite arguments from some that Luka Dončić has outperformed Gilgeous-Alexander this season, Dončić’s PER ranks at No. 103 in NBA history – significantly lower than SGA’s.

With Jalen Williams missing a significant portion of the season, Gilgeous-Alexander’s impact on the Thunder’s success, who are on pace to win 60-plus games, further solidifies his MVP candidacy.

Dončić’s Surge

Luka Dončić has demonstrated impressive form since the All-Star break, averaging 33.4 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game. This performance has propelled the Lakers to the No. 3 seed in the West, holding a 1.5-game lead.

Historically, winning the MVP award while not finishing in the top three seeds in one’s conference is rare. Since 1983, only two players have achieved this feat, potentially diminishing Nikola Jokic’s chances as the Denver Nuggets have struggled in the second half of the season.

Dončić possesses the statistical credentials to contend for MVP, but the Thunder’s superior record may ultimately be the deciding factor in the SGA-Dončić debate.

Cunningham’s Injury Impacts MVP Race

Cade Cunningham is no longer a contender for the MVP award after suffering a collapsed lung and being expected to miss at least two weeks, potentially sidelining him until the playoffs.

Cunningham is averaging 24.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 9.9 assists per game this season, while shooting 46.1% from the field and 34.6% from beyond the arc. His absence and Detroit’s potential slip from the No. 1 seed in the East remove his primary argument for the award.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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