134,756 people in the Netherlands were diagnosed with cancer last year. This figure is nearly identical to the previous year’s total, but it represents a relative decline when adjusted for a population that grew by approximately 100,000 people during the same period.
The data indicates that the per-capita risk of developing cancer has been trending slightly downward since 2022. Despite this shift, medical experts warn that the current incidence rate remains high.
Otto Visser, head of the Dutch Cancer Registry at the Integraal Kankercentrum Nederland (IKNL), suggests the country has passed the peak of the most aggressive increase in cancer risk. Visser acknowledges a previous “hausse” or surge in cases, but maintains that the baseline remains elevated.
Relative cancer risk in the Netherlands has dipped since 2022
Preliminary figures from 2025 show a divergence in how different cancers are progressing across the population. The overall relative decline is driven primarily by a reduction in colorectal and lung cancer diagnoses.
This downward trend in specific cancers has effectively offset the growth of other types. Absolute numbers of diagnoses are expected to rise in the coming years, a trajectory Visser attributes to the increasing number of elderly citizens in the Netherlands.
Why skin and prostate cancers continue to climb
Skin and prostate cancers are seeing an increase in total cases. These specific malignancies are strongly correlated with age, meaning they appear more frequently as the average age of the population rises.
The rise in these two types of cancer creates a statistical tension with the falling rates of lung and colorectal cases. Although the total number of diagnoses remains stable relative to population growth, the burden of disease is shifting toward cancers that typically affect older demographics.
Among women, lung cancer diagnoses now equal those of men
Lung cancer data reveals a significant gender shift. While diagnoses among men are declining slightly, they are rising rapidly among women. For the first time in 2025, the number of new female lung cancer patients equaled the number of new male patients.
Bart Kiemeney, an epidemiologist at Radboudumc, attributes this phenomenon to generational smoking patterns. He notes that in previous decades, smoking was almost universal among men, and that generation is now passing away.
Women began smoking in larger numbers much later, specifically during the “flower power” era. This delayed onset of smoking habits has resulted in a delayed peak of lung cancer diagnoses for women, creating the current parity between genders despite an overall decline in lung cancer risk for the general population.
The 2014 colorectal screening program has hit a ceiling
Colorectal cancer rates have been falling for about a decade, a trend that includes a decrease in the relative number of deaths from the disease. This success is linked to the national screening program that identifies precancerous stages through biennial stool tests.
Visser does not expect the screening program to drive further significant declines in the numbers. He believes the maximum statistical effect of the 2014 initiative has already been realized.
The stability of the relative cancer risk suggests a plateau in public health gains. Future changes in diagnosis rates will likely depend more on demographic shifts than on the continued impact of existing screening protocols.
Why are skin and prostate cancer cases increasing?
These two types of cancer are more common in older age groups. As the Dutch population becomes older on average, the absolute number of people developing these specific cancers naturally rises.
What is causing the rise of lung cancer in women?
The increase is due to historical smoking habits. Women began smoking in larger numbers later than men, specifically around the “flower power” era, which has led to a later surge in diagnoses compared to the older generation of male smokers.