NL East Preview 2026: A Tight Race Between Braves, Phillies and Mets
The 2026 National League East promises to be a fiercely competitive race, with the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and New York Mets all projected to be within striking distance of each other. While the Phillies won the division comfortably in 2025, and the Braves dominated for six consecutive years prior, the landscape has shifted, creating a more open and unpredictable contest.
A Three-Team Battle
Projection systems like FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus indicate a very close division. FanGraphs projects the Braves, Phillies, and Mets to finish within three wins of one another, while Baseball Prospectus sees the Braves and Mets as equals, with the Phillies slightly behind. None of the projections forecast any team exceeding 91 wins.
Philadelphia Phillies: Seeking Sustained Success
The Phillies will aim to build on their recent success, having won the division in the past two seasons. Key offseason moves included retaining free agent designated hitter Kyle Schwarber on a five-year deal and catcher J.T. Realmuto on a three-year contract. They also added outfielder Adolis García on a one-year deal and reliever Brad Keller on a two-year contract, while trading reliever Matt Strahm to the Kansas City Royals for Jonathan Bowlan and signing Zach Pop for one year.
But, the Phillies’ offseason was marked by a failed attempt to acquire infielder Bo Bichette, who ultimately signed with the Mets. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski expressed frustration over missing out on Bichette, calling it a “gut punch.”
The biggest question mark for the Phillies is their starting rotation. While they were among the best in baseball in 2025, the departure of Ranger Suárez to Boston, and the recovery of Zack Wheeler from thoracic outlet surgery, create uncertainty. Aaron Nola’s performance in 2025 also raises concerns.
Atlanta Braves: Navigating Injury Concerns
The Braves are looking to rebound after a disappointing 2025 season. Their lineup depth is a strength, with no position projected to be worse than average, and the anticipated return of a healthy Ronald Acuña Jr. After recovering from knee surgery is a significant boost.
However, the Braves face substantial risk in their starting rotation. Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep both underwent elbow surgeries, and their availability for the 2026 season is uncertain. AJ Smith-Shawver is also expected to miss much of the first half of the season following elbow surgery. The rotation’s depth consists of veterans with question marks, including Joey Wentz, Martín Pérez, and Carlos Carrasco.
ZiPS projections suggest the Braves would lose more wins than any other team if their starting five were limited to half their typical innings, highlighting the importance of rotation health.
New York Mets: A Revamped Roster
The Mets have undergone significant roster turnover and are hoping for a more competitive season after a down year. They successfully landed Bo Bichette after the Phillies’ deal fell through. The team’s infield is projected to be a strength, and there is optimism surrounding the potential of their revamped defense.
The Mets’ rotation, however, remains a question mark. While it is projected to be improved from 2025, there are uncertainties surrounding veterans Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga, as well as David Peterson and Clay Holmes. Nolan McLean’s impressive debut offers hope, but relying on him for a full season of similar performance is unrealistic.
Miami Marlins: A Potential Dark Horse
While not favored to win the division, the Miami Marlins are showing signs of improvement. They have focused on improving their contact skills, reducing strikeouts, and have added promising young players. Their pitching staff is also a strength, with a focus on innovative approaches, and the addition of reliever Pete Fairbanks.
The Marlins may need some support from the top teams faltering to build a serious run at the division title, but they could be a surprisingly interesting contender.
Looking Ahead
The 2026 NL East race is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in baseball. The Braves, Phillies, and Mets all have strengths and weaknesses, and the Marlins could potentially shake things up. The division title will likely come down to which team can best navigate injuries, maintain consistent performance, and capitalize on opportunities.