Parx Racing Preview: Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion Stakes
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This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman offer their analysis and top picks for a big day of racing from Parx. The Bensalem, Pa., oval will offer seven stakes races on Saturday afternoon worth $3.2 million.
Leading the way will be a pair of Grade 1, $1 million races for 3-year-old males and 3-year-old fillies. Baeza and Scottish Lassie have been pegged as the morning-line favorites in the Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion Stakes, respectively.
After a strong string of performances running second or third in big races behind Sovereignty and Journalism,Baeza merits top billing in a deep field of 10 sophomore colts entered in the Pennsylvania Derby. Owned by C R K Stable and Grandview Equine, the third-place finisher in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes was a good second behind division leader sovereignty last time in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2). Gosger and Goal Oriented, a close second and third in the Haskell Stakes (G1) last time, lead his challengers.
On the female side, the Kentucky oaks (G1) winner Good Cheer will look to break a two-race losing skid when she takes on a pair of two-time Grade 1 winners in Scottish Lassie and La Cara. Trained by Brad Cox, Good Cheer is 7-for-9 overall but is only the second choice on the morning line to Scottish Lassie, who won Saratoga’s Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) last month by 15 1/2 lengths.
Brian: Matt, let’s check out the ladies first. The Cotillion brings together some of the best 3-year-old fillies in the country, and it’s also a wide-open affair, in my opinion. I think the Parx oddsmaker probably has it right in predicting that Scottish Lassie will be the favorite based on her romping win in the CCA Oaks last time out.
The daughter of McKinzie is an oddity in that her only two career wins have come by large margins in Grade 1 races and a season apart. She hasn’t run poorly in her other four starts,but nothing like her two big victories. She is talented, for certain, but drawing the rail with other speed promptly to her outside, I don’t expect this to be easy for her.
Matt: Scottish Lassie is not the kind of favorite that interests me. there are just too manny questions to ask, and those open-length victories will attract a lot of money at the windows. She won by more than 15 lengths in the CCA oaks in a four-horse field. Immersive and Dry Powder were in there and thay are good horses, but the race was basically over when Scottish Lassie got loose on the lead. The track at Parx can be quirky and deep and just might not suit Scottish Lassie as the New York tracks certainly do.
Brian: Good Cheer might be the safe play in the Cotillion. The Godolphin filly has proven her class with five stakes victories, and she was able to bounce back last time with a good performance in the Alabama (G1) after a puzzling effort in the Acorn (G1).
I think it’s fair to draw a line through her only poor race because of the track condition. With plenty of early speed in the race, she should have every chance to come with a rally here. Even though she has proven vulnerable of late, I still consider her the one to beat on Saturday at Parx.
Matt: Good Cheer is one of three Grade 1 winners in the field. Her undefeated run of seven races is something that we do not see in racing very frequently enough anymore. There were five stakes races in the streak, including four graded stakes and culminating with her Kentucky Oaks victory.Good Cheer is a lot mo
Pennsylvania Derby: A Chance for Contenders to Shine
The Pennsylvania Derby field lacks a Grade 1 winner, but this is largely due to the presence of Sovereignty and Journalism, the top two 3-year-olds in the country. Several contenders have consistently finished behind these leading horses.
Baeza has been defeated by Sovereignty and Journalism in three of his last four starts. Goal Oriented lost to Journalism in his two moast recent races.Gosger finished second, beaten by a half-length by Journalism in his last start. Magnitude was third in the Travers (G1),which Sovereignty won.
Connections of these four Pennsylvania Derby contenders likely anticipated this scenario – with Sovereignty and Journalism focused on the Breeders’ Cup Classic – when they scheduled their horses to race this Saturday.
Gosger: A Serious Threat
Having beaten Goal Oriented in consecutive races and narrowly missed winning both Grade 1 stakes, Gosger should be considered Baeza’s biggest rival on Saturday. Despite a promising maiden victory in February,Gosger has been underestimated in his three graded-stakes attempts. The morning-line oddsmaker appears to continue this trend, but another strong performance is expected from the Nyquist colt.
Gosger appeared poised for victory in both the preakness and the Haskell with a furlong remaining, before Journalism’s signature late rally.He ultimately defeated Goal Oriented by a neck in the Haskell and Sandman by over two lengths in the Preakness.
Goal Oriented: Potentially Overrated?
goal Oriented remains a promising horse after a strong start to his career with four good races. However, at 5-2 on the morning line, he may be receiving too much respect.