Prabowo’s Mediation Offer Between US and Iran Faces Skepticism

Jakarta – Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s offer to mediate between the United States and Iran has been met with doubt from former Indonesian diplomats, who deem the plan unrealistic given the current geopolitical climate and Indonesia’s limited leverage in the conflict. The offer came after recent attacks between the US-Israel and Iran, escalating tensions in the region.

Indonesia’s Offer and US Response

The Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated President Prabowo’s readiness to “facilitate dialogue” and, if agreed upon by both parties, to travel to Tehran to mediate. This offer was made on February 28, 2026, following US strikes against Iran. Still, the proposal has been widely questioned.

Criticism from Former Diplomats

Dino Patti Djalal, a former Deputy Foreign Minister and Indonesia’s ex-ambassador to Washington, expressed surprise that the proposal wasn’t filtered before being publicly announced, calling it “exceptionally unrealistic.” He outlined several reasons for his assessment, including the historical reluctance of the United States to accept third-party mediation during military operations. Jakarta Globe and Tempo both reported on Djalal’s concerns.

Djalal believes that the United States, due to its “ego as a superpower,” is unlikely to accept mediation, and that President Donald Trump would be particularly resistant to Indonesian involvement. He also suggested that the US attack on Iran may be linked to diverting attention from the Epstein Files investigation. Tempo

Limited Bilateral Ties

Further complicating the situation, Djalal pointed out that Indonesia’s relationship with Iran has been relatively distant. President Prabowo has not yet visited Iran or met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during his first 15 months in office, despite invitations. Jakarta Globe

Concerns Over Indonesia’s Position

Former Vice President Jusuf Kalla (JK) also expressed skepticism, noting that Indonesia’s recent reciprocal trade agreement with the US puts it in a position of inequality, making it hard to act as an impartial mediator. BBC Indonesia

Researcher Virdika Rizky Utama from PARA Syndicate characterized the idea as an attempt to “polish its image” and questioned Indonesia’s consistent diplomatic strategy, particularly after joining the Peace Council formed by Trump. BBC Indonesia

Geopolitical Implications and Strait of Hormuz

Analysts predict a prolonged conflict, with the US-Israel aiming to overthrow the Iranian government. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil trade route, poses a significant threat to the world economy, including Indonesia as an oil importer. BBC Indonesia

Approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, representing nearly $600 billion in annual trade. Disruptions could lead to significant price increases, impacting Indonesia’s economy and potentially causing inflation. BBC Indonesia

Impact on Indonesian Citizens

Around 329 Indonesian citizens are currently registered in Iran. The Indonesian Embassy in Tehran is maintaining communication with them and has advised vigilance, though reports indicate they have not yet experienced any direct threats. BBC Indonesia