He black gold is once again a protagonist on the international economic board and will be decisive from now on in the path of reduction of inflation, both in Europe – including Spain, where yesterday a rise in the year-on-year inflation rate was confirmed to 3.5% in September from 2.6% in August – and in the United States.
In the case of our country, experts like those from BBVA Research They had predicted year-on-year inflation of 3.2% for September, but they estimate that the indicator has finally risen by 3.5% because there is three additional tenths that respond directly to rising oil prices. In fact, they calculate that for every 10 dollars (9.45 euros) that the price of a barrel of Brent increases above its current level, inflation will rise by three tenths.
This Thursday, the price of Brent – North Sea crude oil – for delivery in November exceeded 97 dollars per barrel (91.9 euros), So in just one week it has risen four dollars and could imminently beat its previous maximum, recorded in October 2022, when it exceeded 97.9 dollars (92.8 euros). In just two months the increase has been twenty dollars, since In July it was trading at $79.9 (75.7 euros).
What is the reason for this sharp increase? Mainly to the decision of Vladimir PutinPresident of Russiaof cut crude oil production. To date, Russia (a member of OPEC+) produced and sold as much oil as it could, but this summer it changed its strategy and aligned itself with Saudi Arabia in its production cut, which has caused an increase in the price of this raw material. energy. This way, when you decide to sell the same amount as before, you will earn much more because the price will be much higher.
For most of EU countriesdependent on foreign oil, this rise translates into a impoverishment direct and in a rising inflationsince it implies an almost automatic increase in the price of fuel and, as these are production inputs for most productive sectors, companies increase their costs and pass the increase on to final prices.