Russia’s Aviation Gap: Production Claims Clash with Attrition Reality
The Kremlin is projecting an image of industrial resilience, claiming that Russia has doubled its combat aircraft production since the start of the war in Ukraine. However, data from independent defense analysts suggests a starkly different reality on the flight line. While Moscow emphasizes the mobilization of its military-industrial base, the actual number of aircraft delivered in 2025 fails to keep pace with combat losses, resulting in a net deficit for the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Key Takeaways
- Production vs. Claims: While Rostec chief Sergei Chemezov claimed production has doubled, verified 2025 deliveries totaled at least 30 aircraft.
- The Attrition Deficit: Russia lost approximately 65 aircraft in 2025, creating a net fleet reduction of 35 aircraft for the year.
- Target Shortfalls: Actual deliveries reached only about half of the 2025 production target of 57 aircraft.
- Platform Dominance: The Su-34M and Su-35S make up the bulk of new deliveries, while the Su-57 remains a marginal contributor.
The Narrative of Industrial Resilience
At a formal meeting with President Vladimir Putin, Rostec chief Sergei Chemezov asserted that Russia’s combat aircraft production has doubled since the conflict began. According to the Kremlin’s official website, this claim is central to Moscow’s wartime strategy. The narrative intends to signal that Western sanctions have failed to disrupt defense factories and that the Aerospace Forces are being resupplied faster than they can be depleted.
This assertion serves a dual purpose: it boosts domestic confidence in the military-industrial complex and attempts to discourage Western partners from increasing their support for Ukraine by suggesting that Russian airpower is effectively inexhaustible.
The 2025 Delivery Breakdown
Verified data challenges the Kremlin’s optimistic outlook. Analysis by the Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi indicates that Russia delivered at least 30 new tactical combat aircraft in 2025. The delivery breakdown reveals a heavy reliance on older, modernized platforms rather than next-generation technology:
- Su-34M: Approximately 14 to 15 modernized frontline bombers.
- Su-35S: 12 multirole fighters, delivered in six separate batches.
- Su-30SM2: 2 multirole aircraft.
- Su-57: Approximately 2 fifth-generation fighters, though their operational readiness remains questionable.
The Target vs. The Result
The gap between ambition and execution is significant. According to NV, Russian production targets for 2025 aimed for up to 57 new aircraft across the Su-30, Su-34, Su-35, and Su-57 families. With only 30 confirmed deliveries, Russia achieved roughly half of its goal. This shortfall highlights the measurable impact of export controls on precision components and specialized tooling.
Attrition Outpacing Production
The most critical metric for the Russian Aerospace Forces is not the total number of aircraft produced, but the net change in fleet size. NV analysts assessed that Russia lost 65 aircraft in the war against Ukraine in 2025 alone.
When the 30 confirmed deliveries are weighed against 65 losses, the result is a net fleet reduction of 35 aircraft in a single calendar year. This confirms that aircraft are being replaced at a rate well below the level of attrition. Despite any increases in factory output, the production line cannot keep up with the rate at which aircraft are being shot down.
The Su-57: A Symbolic Rather Than Strategic Asset
Moscow frequently uses the Su-57 fifth-generation fighter in public messaging to showcase military modernization. However, the delivery of only two aircraft in 2025 demonstrates that the program remains a marginal contributor to actual airpower. The Su-57 has been plagued by modest output and delays throughout its development.
In contrast, the Su-34M and Su-35S are the operational workhorses. The Su-34M is essential for dropping glide bombs on frontline positions, while the Su-35S provides the air superiority necessary for contested airspace. Together, these two types constitute the overwhelming majority of Russia’s new combat inventory.
The Impact of Western Sanctions
Russia’s aerospace industry has faced severe restrictions since 2022, specifically targeting electronic components, specialized alloys, and precision manufacturing equipment. While Russia has shown resilience through parallel import networks and domestic substitution, these adaptations have limits.
The difference between the target of 57 aircraft and the actual delivery of 30 represents a “sanctions dividend.” While the factories continue to run, they are not operating at the pace required to sustain the current rate of combat losses.
Summary of Russian Air Fleet Status (2025)
| Metric | Claimed/Targeted | Verified/Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Production Target | Up to 57 Aircraft | ~30 Aircraft |
| Combat Losses (2025) | Not Disclosed | ~65 Aircraft |
| Net Fleet Change | Growth (Claimed) | -35 Aircraft (Deficit) |
| Su-57 Deliveries | High Priority | ~2 Aircraft |
Looking Ahead
The disparity between Sergei Chemezov’s reports to the Kremlin and the data tracked by independent analysts suggests a growing tension between political narrative and operational reality. As long as attrition continues to outpace production, the Russian Aerospace Forces will face a shrinking inventory of high-end combat aircraft, regardless of how many factories are shifted to a wartime footing.