Severe Storms Threaten Southern California with Tornadoes, Flooding, and Heavy Snow
Southern California is bracing for a powerful storm system expected to bring severe weather conditions starting Monday, February 16, 2026. The National Weather Service (NWS) has warned of potential tornadoes, damaging winds up to 60 mph, flash flooding, and significant mountain snowfall.
Storm Intensification and Multiple Threats
Forecasters report the storm has been rapidly strengthening, deepening nearly 1 millibar per hour as it approaches the region. The combination of two low-pressure systems merging overnight Sunday into Monday will create a rare and dangerous weather event. This convergence will result in a combination of high precipitable waters, cold air aloft, and a strong atmospheric disturbance.
Timing and Impact by Region
Peak storm activity is expected around Monday morning’s rush hour in San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties, continuing through early evening in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. A squall line associated with the cold front will bring the most hazardous conditions. Rainfall rates of 0.5 to 0.75 inches per hour are anticipated, with localized rates potentially exceeding one inch per hour. Much of this rainfall could occur within 15 to 30-minute spans.
Forecasters warn of heavy rainfall, enhanced damaging winds, and the possibility of brief spin-up tornadoes and/or waterspouts moving onshore. Widespread winds with gusts up to 60 mph are expected, prompting high wind warnings and advisories across most of the region.
Rainfall, Flooding, and Evacuation Warnings
Total rainfall Monday is forecast to reach 1 to 2.5 inches for coastal areas and valleys, and 2.5 to 5 inches in foothills, and mountains. Isolated areas, particularly in the Ventura Mountains and Santa Ynez Range, could receive up to six inches of rain. A flood watch is in effect from 9 a.m. To 9 p.m. Monday for Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties (excluding the Antelope Valley). Rock and mudslides are possible near steep terrain, and debris flows are a concern in burn scar areas.
An evacuation warning is in effect from 9 p.m. Sunday through 9 a.m. Tuesday for the Palisades, Sunset, and Hurst burn scar areas due to the risk of mud and debris flows.
Mountain Snow and Travel Hazards
Snow levels will initially be above 5,000 feet on Monday, but a second, colder wave Tuesday night into Wednesday will rapidly drop them to 3,000 to 4,500 feet. This will create significant travel hazards on Interstate 5 over the Grapevine, Highway 33, and other low-lying passes. The Grapevine could see 3 to 6 inches of snow late Tuesday night as rain transitions to snow. Higher elevations above 6,000 feet could accumulate up to three feet of snow by Thursday. A winter storm warning is in effect for the Eastern San Gabriel Mountains and Northern Ventura County Mountains from 6 a.m. Monday to 9 a.m. Thursday.
Coastal Hazards
High surf advisories are in effect through Thursday, with waves of 12 to 16 feet expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. Elevated high tides coinciding with the new moon cycle will increase coastal flooding risks, particularly during high tides Tuesday and Wednesday. A coastal flood advisory may be issued if forecasts remain consistent.
Looking Ahead
The storm will continue to impact Southern California through at least mid-week. Isolated showers will continue Monday evening into Tuesday morning, with another wave bringing numerous showers and potential thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Residents are urged to monitor forecasts and sign up for alerts through NotifyLA.org and avoid unnecessary mountain travel during hazardous conditions.