Strait of Hormuz Closure Threatens Global Oil Supply

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, is facing potential closure following recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran, raising concerns about significant disruptions to the world’s energy supply. Reports indicate Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned ships that passage through the strait is “not allowed,” though these claims remain unverified.

Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz: What We Know

On Saturday, February 28, 2026, several commercial vessels in the Gulf received VHF radio messages allegedly from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) stating that the Strait of Hormuz was closed to navigation. Multiple sources, including the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency, confirmed receiving these reports from Company Security Officers (CSOs). However, the UKMTO emphasized that these broadcasts are not legally binding under international law.

The U.S. Navy has also warned against navigation in the Gulf, Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz, stating it cannot guarantee the safety of shipping. Greece’s shipping ministry has advised vessels to avoid the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the warnings, Iran has not officially confirmed a full closure of the strait. An official with the EU naval mission Aspides reported receiving the transmission from the IRGC, but noted the lack of official confirmation.

Impact on Global Oil Markets

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, facilitating the passage of approximately 20% of global oil supply. Major producers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran rely on the strait to transport crude oil to global markets, along with significant volumes of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from Qatar.

Several tanker owners, oil majors, and trading houses have already suspended crude oil, fuel, and LNG shipments in response to the escalating tensions. Satellite images show vessels piling up near ports like Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, awaiting further developments. Fourteen LNG tankers have slowed down, changed course, or stopped altogether, potentially disrupting Qatari LNG exports.

Oil prices are expected to react to the situation, with some analysts predicting a potential jump of as much as $20 per barrel.

Yemen’s Houthis Add to Maritime Concerns

Adding to the instability, the Yemeni Houthis have indicated their intention to resume attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea after a period of relative calm. This dual threat – a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz and renewed attacks in the Red Sea – poses a significant challenge to global maritime trade.

Key Takeaways

• Iran has reportedly warned ships that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, but has not officially confirmed this.
• The UKMTO has received multiple reports of these warnings, but stresses they are not legally binding.
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would significantly disrupt global oil supplies.
• Oil prices are expected to rise in response to the heightened tensions.
• Renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea add to the maritime security concerns.