Takaichi Wins Stunning Election Victory in Japan

People attend Liberal Democratic Party President and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stump speech in southern of Tokyo in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, on 31 January, ahead of Japan’s 8 February House of Representatives election.

• Japan’s first female leader has called a rare winter snap election.
• Takaichi has experienced strong ratings since becoming prime minister in October.
• However, her rule has strained ties with Beijing and rattled markets.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s coalition swept to a landslide election win on Sunday, paving the way for her tax cuts that have spooked financial markets and military spending aimed at countering China.

The conservative Takaichi, Japan’s first female leader who says she is inspired by Britain’s “Iron Lady” Margaret Thatcher, was projected to deliver as many as 328 of the 465 seats in parliament’s lower house for her Liberal Democratic Party.

The LDP alone had already sailed past the 233 seats needed for a majority less than two hours after polls closed. With its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin, she is certain to deliver a supermajority that would ease her legislative agenda, public broadcaster NHK projected.

Winter election brings blizzard of votes

“This election involved major policy shifts — particularly a major shift ‍in economic and fiscal policy, as well as strengthening security policy,” Takaichi said in a television interview as the results rolled in.

“These are policies that have drawn a great deal of opposition. If we have received the public’s support, then we truly must tackle these issues with all our strength.”

Takaichi, 64, called the rare winter snap election to capitalise on her buoyant personal approval ratings since she was ‍elevated to lead the long-ruling LDP late last year.

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Voters have been drawn to her straight-talking, hardworking image, but her nationalistic leanings and emphasis on security have strained ties with powerful neighbour China, while her promises of tax cuts have rattled financial markets.

Residents trudged through snow to cast their ballots, with record snowfall in parts of the country snarling traffic and requiring some polling stations to close early. It was only the third postwar election held in February, with elections typically called during milder months.

Outside a polling station in the town of Uonuma in the mountainous Niigata prefecture, teacher Kazushige Cho, 54, braved below-freezing temperatures and deep snow to cast his vote for Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party.

Cho said:

But Takaichi’s election promise to suspend the 8% sales tax on food to help households cope with rising prices has spooked investors, who are concerned about how the nation with the heaviest debt burden among advanced economies will fund the plan.

Takaichi said in the interview that she would speed up consideration for the sales tax cut while keeping the focus on fiscal sustainability.

“Her plans for the cut in the consumption tax leave open big question marks about funding and how she’s going to go about making the arithmetic add up,” said Chris Scicluna, head of research at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe in London.

Backed by Trump, backed by China

The head of Japan’s top business lobby, Keidanren, Yoshinobu Tsutsui, welcomed Takaichi’s win as restoring political stability. “Japan’s economy is now at a critical juncture for achieving sustainable and strong growth,” he said.

The LDP, which has ruled for almost all of Japan’s postwar history, had lost control of both houses in elections over the past 15 months under Takaichi’s predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba.

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Takaichi has managed to turn around the party’s fortunes in party by building a sizable following on social media and striking a chord with younger voters.

She has even sparked a “sanakatsu” craze, roughly translated as “Sanae-mania”, with the products she uses, such as her handbag and the pink pen she scribbles notes with in parliament, in high demand.

U.S. President Donald Trump last week gave Takaichi his “total endorsement” and said he would host her at the White House next month.

China will also be keeping a close eye on the results.

Weeks after taking office, Takaichi touched off the biggest dispute with Beijing in over a decade by publicly outlining how Tokyo might respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.

China responded with economic countermeasures, including urging its citizens not to travel to Japan.

READ | Japanese bonds crash as politicians make big promises

Takaichi’s strong mandate could accelerate her plans to bolster Japan’s defences, further angering Beijing, which has cast her as attempting to revive its militaristic past.

Japan’s Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi told TV stations on Sunday evening that he wanted to push ahead with policies to strengthen Japan’s defence while pursuing dialogue with China.

David Boling, principal at the Asia Group, a firm that advises companies on geopolitical risk, said:

“China now faces the reality that she is firmly in place — and that its efforts to isolate her completely failed.”