2024-01-28 06:13:00
Original title: China’s bright economic prospects will surely disappoint naysayers
For some time, some voices in the international community have been denigrating China’s economy, trying to press the stop button on China’s economic development. What is the development status of China’s economy? Facts speak louder than words – In the post-epidemic era, the international situation is complex and severe, the uncertainty of the world economy is increasing, growth momentum is insufficient, and the recovery of major economies is weak, China’s economy can still achieve an expected growth rate of more than 5%, and per capita can Disposable income continues to rise, and the digital economy and green economy have opened up a new track for economic development and achieved impressive results, demonstrating unique development resilience, development vitality and development potential.
Contribution rate to global economic growth will still exceed 30%
Currently, global trade in goods, trade in services, and investment are generally on a downward trend. In sharp contrast, my country’s import and export of goods have achieved positive growth, and new foreign trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses are developing well; the “three new things” represented by electric passenger vehicles, solar cells, and lithium batteries Exports will exceed one trillion yuan for the first time in 2023; service trade continues to grow, knowledge-intensive service trade performs well, and the number of international patent applications ranks first in the world for four consecutive years. From January to November 2023, my country’s foreign non-financial direct investment was 814.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%, of which 201.17 billion yuan was invested in countries co-building the “Belt and Road”, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. Green industries, new energy and digital emerging fields have become the focus of expansion of investment cooperation, making important contributions to the economic recovery of host countries and the world.
Multinational companies are voting with their feet on the Chinese economy. The number of foreign-invested enterprises in our country has reached a new high, and the absorption of foreign investment is still at a historical high. More high-quality foreign investment is investing in high-tech industries and service industries, showing a high-end trend. Well-known multinational companies such as Airbus, Walmart, Volkswagen, and L’Oreal have increased their investment in China, and investment from developed countries such as the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Australia has grown rapidly.
Since the second half of 2023, there have been more positive factors for China’s economic development, the trend of recovery has been strengthening, high-quality development has been steadily advancing, and most economic data have shown a rising trend month by month. Gross domestic product, foreign trade, foreign investment, and major foreign investment countries With its position firmly established, China remains an important driving force for global economic recovery and development, and its trend towards becoming an economic power is evident.
With the advancement of the joint construction of the “Belt and Road”, China’s imports and exports to emerging markets such as Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America are expected to continue to grow rapidly, and their supporting role in foreign trade throughout 2023 will increase. According to reports from the International Monetary Fund and the International Financial Forum, China’s contribution to global economic growth will still exceed 30% in 2023, making it a truly responsible power.
The world’s rare economic fundamentals, advantageous foundations and sustainable policies continue to improve
The scarring effect of the post-epidemic era, the “labor pains” caused by the transformation of old and new driving forces, the shrinking external market, and the intensification of international competition have all affected my country’s current economy to a certain extent. However, in the medium to long term, the fundamentals that support my country’s continued economic growth have not changed, the advantageous basis of my country’s economic development has not changed, and the sustainability of the party and government’s policies to promote economic development has not changed.
UBS believes that China is shifting from an investment-driven growth model to a high-quality growth model driven by domestic demand. The average economic growth rate in the medium term will exceed 4%, and green economy, consumption and high technology will become new growth drivers. Economists from the Globalization Department of UNCTAD said that the medium- to long-term positive momentum for China’s economic growth remains strong. China’s economic development will enter a more stable stage.
Entering a new era, China’s economic growth model has gradually transformed from “low-cost factors driven” to “scale market driven” and “institutional innovation driven”, and the pace of structural transformation and upgrading has accelerated. Years of economic development have brought continuous growth in national wealth, and overall victory has been achieved in poverty alleviation. The number of middle-income people has exceeded 400 million, and the number is still growing. This has led to the upgrading of consumption levels and consumption structures, forming a super-large-scale market effect and becoming a driving force for the economy. A huge driver of growth.
At the same time, our country has built a series of pilot zones such as free trade pilot zones and comprehensive demonstration zones for expanded opening-up of the service industry, aligned with international high-standard international economic and trade rules, conducted institutional innovation and reform experiments, continued to optimize the business environment, and adhered to a new round of reform and opening up. The continuity of policies thus better integrates two international and domestic resources and two markets, providing institutional guarantees for economic growth.
Our country is still the country with the most complete industrial system in the world. The industrial system covers all the current classifications of modern industrial systems by the United Nations and is more complete than the United States. The scale effect of production capacity continues to expand and the industrial supporting facilities are complete, forming a complete industrial chain and supply chain. chain system; the application scenarios of science and technology are broad, and it has a cost advantage compared with developed countries. It also forms an efficiency advantage over other developing countries, and is favored by international multinational companies. Therefore, it can effectively hedge against the “decoupling and disconnection” against China that the United States and the West are constantly promoting. The competitive substitution of some emerging developing countries has formed a strong industrial support for my country’s economic development.
Our country’s industrial structure continues to upgrade, and its modern technological innovation capabilities continue to increase. my country’s modern service industry has developed rapidly. Supply chain management, industrial design and creativity, information technology consulting, modern circulation and other producer services are closely integrated with the manufacturing industry, which has greatly improved the quality of manufacturing supply and driven the manufacturing industry from labor-intensive to labor-intensive. Upgrading of capital and technology-intensive industries.
my country’s technological innovation level continues to improve, with world-leading technologies such as high-speed rail, ultra-high voltage, quantum communications, new energy vehicles, solar power generation, nuclear power, and 5G, as well as modern technological innovations such as big data, cloud computing, the Internet of Things, blockchain, and artificial intelligence. The continuous enhancement of capabilities has promoted the rapid development of my country’s digital economy and has become a new driving force and new engine for my country’s economic development. At present, the development scale of the digital economy is second only to the United States in the world. Industrial digitization and digital industrialization are expanding and deepening. Digital trade and digital investment are in the ascendant. Digital application scenarios and development prospects are broad, providing vigorous momentum for sustainable economic development. UBS predicts that China’s digital economy is expected to reach US$15.7 trillion in 2027, accounting for 60% of its GDP.
Stay focused and eliminate the negative noise from the international community
To promote sustained economic growth, stabilizing expectations is key. The current international noise that pessimizes China’s economy actually disrupts expectations and misleads market entities into irrational behavior. Therefore, we need to maintain our composure, stabilize expectations through various policies, and promote sustained economic growth.
Adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, maintain the coordination and stability of economic policies, form a policy synergy effect for economic growth, and promote market entities to have a positive impact on the current economic status and future. A comprehensive and rational grasp.
Boost consumer confidence, adjust the income distribution structure, diversify employment channels, effectively increase people’s income, and give people a sufficient sense of wealth and growth expectations, thus laying a solid foundation for consumption growth and domestic demand expansion. At the same time, fiscal, financial and industrial policies should be tilted towards encouraging new consumption areas such as digital consumption, green consumption, health care consumption, cultural and sports consumption, and improve the demand structure.
Continue to promote a market-oriented, legalized, and internationalized business environment, unswervingly deepen the reform of delegating power, delegating regulations, and optimizing services, improve institutional innovation in line with international advanced levels, continue to expand foreign investment access, and promote high-level opening up to the outside world. Effectively reduce the burden on enterprises, reduce the financing problems of small and medium-sized enterprises, provide necessary financial support for enterprises to expand investment, improve the service capabilities of government departments for enterprises, and strive to solve problems existing in enterprise operations, thereby boosting domestic and foreign enterprises to invest in the Chinese market confidence and expand investment demand.
Strengthen the guidance of public opinion, proactively guide market entities to rationally understand China’s economic fundamentals and development resilience, accurately grasp macro policy orientation, enhance rational expectations for high-quality economic development, and weaken the confidence of market entities in various negative arguments about China’s economy. and expected disruptions, singing the bright theory of China’s economy.
(Author: Lan Qingxin is a researcher at the Beijing Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and a professor at the University of International Business and Economics)
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