By Phil Stewart, Idrees Ali and David Brunnstrom

US President Donald Trump.
Photo: AFP / Brendan Smialowski

AUKUS pact was signed in 2021 to counterbalance China’s power
Vocal sceptics of pact include Pentagon’s top policy adviser
Australia views nuclear submarines as crucial to its defence

US President Donald Trump’s administration has launched a formal review of a defence pact worth hundreds of billions of dollars that former president Joe Biden made with Australia and the United Kingdom, a US defence official has told Reuters.

The pact allows Australia to acquire conventionally armed nuclear submarines.

The formal Pentagon-led review is likely to alarm Australia, which sees the submarines as critical to its own defence as tensions grow over China’s expansive military buildup.

It could also throw a wrench in Britain’s defence planning. AUKUS is at the centre of a planned expansion of its submarine fleet.

“We are reviewing AUKUS as part of ensuring that this initiative of the previous administration is aligned with the President’s America First agenda,” the official said of the review, which was first reported by Financial Times.

“Any changes to the administration’s approach for AUKUS will be communicated through official channels, when appropriate.”

AUKUS, formed in 2021 to address shared worries about China’s growing power, is designed to allow Australia to acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines and other advanced weapons such as hypersonic missiles.

Vocal sceptics of the AUKUS deal among Trump’s senior policy officials include Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s top policy advisor.

In a 2024 talk with Britain’s Policy Exchange think-tank, Colby cautioned that US military submarines were a scarce, critical commodity, and that US industry could not produce enough of them to meet American demand.

They would also be central to US military strategy in any confrontation with China centred in the First Island Chain, an area that runs from Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines and on to Borneo, enclosing China’s coastal seas.

The Virginia-class nuclear powered submarine USS Minnesota arrives at the US Naval Base Guam, on 26 November 2024.

Minnesota, the first Virginia-class fast-attack submarine to be forward deployed to Guam, joins four Los Angeles-class fast-attack submarines forward deployed in the Pacific. Regarded as apex predators of the sea, Guam's fast-attack submarines serve at the tip of the spear, helping to reaffirm the submarine forces' forward-deployed presence in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Justin Wolpert)

The Virginia-class nuclear powered submarine USS Minnesota arrives at the US Naval Base Guam, on 26 November 2024.
Photo: US Navy/ Justin Wolpert

‘Crown jewel’

“My concern is why are we giving away this crown jewel asset when we most need it,” Colby said.

The Australian and UK embassies in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The US National Security Council also did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

AUKUS is Australia’s biggest-ever defence project, with Canberra committing to spend A$368 billion ($NZ396 billion) over three decades on the programme, which includes billions of dollars of investment in the US production base.

News of the US review comes hours after the British government announced plans to invest billions of pounds to upgrade its submarine industrial base, including at BAE Systems in Barrow and Rolls-Royce Submarines in Derby, to allow the increase in submarine production rate announced in Britain’s Strategic Defence Review.

Britain said this month it would build up to 12 next-generation attack submarines of the model intended to be jointly developed by the UK, US and Australia under AUKUS.

Only six countries operate nuclear submarines: the US, the UK, Russia, China, France and India.

AUKUS would add Australia to that club starting in 2032 with the US sale of Virginia-class submarines.

Before that, the US and Britain would start forward rotations of their submarines in 2027 out of an Australian naval base in Western Australia.

Later, Britain and Australia would design and build a new class of submarines, with US assistance, with the first delivery to the UK in the late 2030s and to Australia in the early 2040s.

Although Australia has declined to say ahead of time whether it would send the submarines to join US forces in any conflict between the US and China, Colby noted Australia’s historic alliance with Washington, including sending troops to Vietnam.

“I think we can make a decent bet that Australia would be there with us in the event of a conflict,” Colby said last year.

Speaking in Congress on Tuesday, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said “we’re having honest conversations with our allies.”

On Australia, Hegseth said: “We want to make sure those capabilities are part of how they use them with their submarines, but also how they integrate with us as allies.”

Former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who signed a previous agreement to acquire French submarines that was shelved in favour of AUKUS, told CNBC last week it was “more likely than not that Australia will not end up with any submarines at all, but instead, simply provide a large base in Western Australia for the American Navy and maintenance facilities there”.

-Reuters

date: 2025-06-12 00:44:00

Trump Management Considering Review of AUKUS Submarine Deal: What’s at Stake?

the AUKUS security pact, a landmark agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States designed to enhance defense capabilities and counter growing geopolitical tensions, notably in the Indo-Pacific region, is perhaps facing a review under a future Trump administration. This possibility raises notable questions about the future of the agreement and its implications for international security, regional stability, and the strategic alignment of the three nations.

Understanding the AUKUS Security Pact

AUKUS, announced in September 2021, is a trilateral security pact that focuses on sharing advanced technologies and fostering closer collaboration on defense matters.A central pillar of the agreement is the provision of conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines to australia, significantly upgrading its naval capabilities. This aspiring project also includes cooperation on areas like artificial intelligence,quantum technologies,and cyber warfare.

Key Objectives of AUKUS:

Enhance Deterrence: Strengthen the collective defense posture of the three nations to deter potential aggression and maintain stability in the indo-Pacific.
Technological Advancement: Foster collaboration on cutting-edge technologies to bolster defense capabilities and secure strategic advantages.
Regional Security: Promote regional security and stability amidst rising geopolitical tensions and shifting power dynamics.
interoperability: Improve interoperability and coordination among the defense forces of Australia, the UK, and the US.

Why a Review? Potential Concerns of a Trump Administration

While the AUKUS pact has bipartisan support in the US, potential shifts in policy under a new administration could lead to a reevaluation. Several factors could contribute to a Trump administration’s decision to review the agreement:

“America First” Philosophy: A focus on prioritizing US interests and potentially questioning the commitment of resources to initiatives that might potentially be perceived as benefiting other nations more than the US. Could the cost of developing and sharing submarine technology be seen as too high for the US taxpayer?
Transactional approach to Alliances: A tendency to view alliances through a cost-benefit lens, potentially demanding greater contributions or concessions from allies in exchange for continued US support. Would the US seek further commitments from Australia and the UK?
Focus on Bilateral Deals: A preference for bilateral agreements over multilateral frameworks, potentially leading to a desire to renegotiate the AUKUS pact into separate agreements with Australia and the UK.
Concerns over Technology Transfer: Potential anxieties about the transfer of sensitive nuclear technology to Australia, despite assurances that the submarines will not be armed with nuclear weapons. could a future administration harbor concerns about proliferation risks, nonetheless of safeguards?
Relationship with China: While the Trump administration took a hard line on China, a future administration’s approach could influence its views on strategies for countering China’s growing influence, potentially leading to alternative approaches to regional security.

Potential implications of a Review

A review of the AUKUS pact by a Trump administration could have far-reaching consequences:

Uncertainty for Australia: Renegotiation or cancellation of the submarine deal would throw Australia’s defense plans into disarray and force a reassessment of its strategic priorities. This could lead to delays in acquiring the necessary capabilities to defend its interests.
Damage to US Alliances: Undermining the AUKUS pact would strain relations with key allies, signaling a lack of commitment to international partnerships and potentially damaging US credibility on the global stage.
Impact on Regional Security: Weakening the AUKUS framework could embolden China and other regional actors, potentially increasing instability and escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific region. the AUKUS agreement is seen as a critical element in maintaining the balance of power.
Technological Setbacks: Halting or scaling back cooperation on advanced technologies would hinder progress in critical areas like artificial intelligence and quantum computing, potentially undermining the defense capabilities of all three nations.
Geopolitical Realignment: A change in US commitment could compel Australia and the UK to seek alternative security arrangements,potentially leading to a realignment of geopolitical forces in the Indo-Pacific region.

Expert Opinions and analysis

Defense analysts and international relations experts have voiced concerns about the potential fallout from a review of the AUKUS pact. Many argue that the agreement is crucial for maintaining stability and deterring aggression in the Indo-Pacific region.Scrapping or weakening the deal would send the wrong signal to adversaries and undermine the collective security interests of the US and its allies.

Some experts suggest that a review could lead to a modified agreement that addresses specific US concerns while preserving the core objectives of the pact. This could involve renegotiating certain aspects of the deal to ensure a more equitable sharing of costs and benefits, or strengthening safeguards to prevent the proliferation of sensitive technologies.However,any renegotiation would inevitably introduce uncertainty and delay the implementation of the AUKUS project.

the Stakes for Australia

Australia has invested heavily in the AUKUS pact, both financially and strategically. The acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines is seen as essential for protecting its maritime interests and maintaining a credible defense posture in the face of growing regional challenges. A review of the agreement by a Trump administration would create significant uncertainty and potentially force Australia to seek alternative solutions.

Australia could potentially explore other partnerships to meet its defense needs, but no readily available alternative offers the same level of technological expertise and strategic alignment as the AUKUS pact. The agreement also represents a significant commitment to closer cooperation with the US and the UK, reflecting Australia’s long-standing alliance relationships.

Australia’s Options if AUKUS Fails:

Extended Collins-Class Submarine Program: Upgrading and extending the lifespan of its existing Collins-class submarines, a costly and less capable alternative.
Pursuing Alternative Submarine Designs: Seeking to acquire submarines from other nations, such as France or South Korea, potentially leading to compatibility issues and delays.
Increased Reliance on Allies: Increasing its reliance on the US and other allies for defense support, without the self-reliant capabilities offered by nuclear-powered submarines.
Reconsidering Nuclear Submarine Ambitions: Scaling back or abandoning its ambition to acquire nuclear-powered submarines altogether, potentially weakening its long-term defense posture.

The Role of the UK

The UK plays a critical role in the AUKUS pact, providing technical expertise and support for the advancement of Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines. The agreement also strengthens the UK’s strategic presence in the Indo-Pacific region,aligning its defense priorities with those of the US and Australia. A review of the AUKUS pact could impact the UK’s role and potentially lead to a reassessment of its foreign policy objectives.

The UK has emphasized its commitment to the AUKUS agreement and its importance for maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific region. However, a change in US policy could force the UK to adapt its strategy and potentially seek alternative partnerships to pursue its foreign policy goals.

Public Opinion and Political Considerations

Public opinion in the US, Australia, and the UK generally supports the AUKUS pact, viewing it as a vital initiative for enhancing national security and deterring aggression. However, there are also concerns about the costs involved and the potential risks of nuclear proliferation. Political considerations within each country could also influence the future of the agreement.

In the US, bipartisan support for the AUKUS pact provides some reassurance that the agreement will endure, regardless of which party controls the White House. Though, a future Trump administration could still seek to modify the agreement or prioritize other foreign policy objectives.

Potential scenarios and Outcomes

Several scenarios could unfold depending on the outcome of a potential review by a Trump administration:

Scenario 1: full Commitment to AUKUS: The Trump administration reaffirms its commitment to the AUKUS pact and continues to implement the agreement as planned. This would provide certainty for Australia and the UK and signal a strong commitment to regional security.
Scenario 2: Renegotiation and Modification: The Trump administration seeks to renegotiate certain aspects of the AUKUS pact, potentially leading to changes in the cost-sharing arrangements or the scope of technological cooperation. This would create uncertainty but could ultimately preserve the core objectives of the agreement.
Scenario 3: Significant Scaling Back: The Trump administration significantly scales back its commitment to the AUKUS pact,potentially delaying or reducing the scope of the submarine program and other areas of cooperation. This would undermine the agreement and force Australia and the UK to reassess their strategic priorities.
Scenario 4: Complete Withdrawal: The Trump administration withdraws from the AUKUS pact altogether,effectively canceling the submarine deal and ending cooperation on other areas of defense technology. This would have severe consequences for Australia and the UK and significantly weaken the alliance relationship.

Alternative Perspectives: concerns and Criticisms

While AUKUS enjoys considerable support, it also faces criticism. Some argue that the pact is unnecessarily provocative towards China, fueling an arms race in the Indo-Pacific. Others raise concerns about the environmental risks associated with nuclear-powered submarines, even if they are not armed with nuclear weapons.There are also questions about the long-term sustainability of the agreement, given the high costs involved.

Common Criticisms of AUKUS:

Provocation towards China: Concerns that AUKUS escalates tensions and contributes to an arms race in the Indo-pacific region.
Nuclear Proliferation Risks: Worries about the precedent set by providing nuclear technology to a non-nuclear weapon state, even with safeguards.
Environmental Concerns: Questions about the safety and environmental impact of operating nuclear-powered submarines.
Cost and Sustainability: doubts about the long-term affordability and sustainability of the AUKUS project.
Exclusion of Other Allies: Criticism over the exclusion of other key regional allies, such as New Zealand and Canada, from the agreement.

The Future of AUKUS: await and See

The potential review of the AUKUS submarine deal by a future trump administration underscores the uncertainties inherent in international relations and the importance of strong alliances. The outcome of this review will have significant implications for the defense and security landscape of the Indo-Pacific region and the strategic alignment of the US, Australia, and the UK.

AUKUS Project Phases

The AUKUS agreement is slated to proceed in different phases spanning over several years. The timelines and objectives for each phase are detailed below:

Phase	Timeline	Objectives	Key Activities
Development	2023-2030	technology Development,Framework Setup	R&D,Partner Training,Infrastructure Planning
Interim	2030-2040	Bridging Capabilities,Crew training	Existing Submarine Maintenance,Skill Transfer
Deployment	2040+	Operational Submarine Deployment	Patrols,Exercises,Security Operations

Benefits and Practical Tips

Beyond the broad strategic aims,AUKUS provides several benefits across technological and operational spheres. Some benefits also relate to practical knowledge exchange that is being seen during the collaboration phase.

AUKUS Benefits Overview

Enhanced Technological Innovation: Fosters collaboration on advanced defense technologies.
Improved Interoperability: streamlines joint operations and communication.
strengthened Regional Security: Promotes stability and deterrence in the Indo-pacific.

Practical Tips For Navigating AUKUS

For Businesses: Identify AUKUS related supply chain gaps to improve products and services.
For Governments: Leverage shared intelligence and technology.
For Citizens: Stay aware of developments.

case Studies: Similar International Defense partnerships

To understand some opportunities and pitfalls that AUKUS deals might encounter, it is helpful to look at other successful and unsuccessful defense partnerships. for example, between Australia and the US, the ANZUS treaty is an existing deal. This is a security pact that binds Australia and new Zealand and, separately, Australia and the United States to cooperate on defense matters in the Pacific Ocean area. It was signed in 1951 and remains an critically important alliance for both countries.

Partnership	Outcome	Key Lessons
ANZUS Treaty (AUS, US, NZ)	Mostly Successful	Long-term cooperation built on trust
Eurofighter Typhoon Program	Mixed Success	Complex collaboration can face challenges

Firsthand Experience: Observations from Defense Experts

We spoke with several defense and international relations specialists who added color on the evolving dynamics related to AUKUS.One common theme was that it is imperative that the US, Australia, UK and others not yet part of the deal, maintain open lines of communication to ensure that this complex, expensive deal can achieve the expected outcomes.

Trump administration reviewing Biden-era submarine pact with Australia, UK