Trump Considers Seizing Iranian Oil Amidst Escalating Conflict

As the U.S. Military operation in Iran continues, President Donald Trump has left open the possibility of seizing Iranian oil, drawing parallels to the recent actions taken in Venezuela. This move, officials say, is aimed at preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and diminishing its regional influence.

Venezuela as a Precedent

Trump referenced the U.S. Intervention in Venezuela, where the capture of President Nicolás Maduro led to the securing of Venezuelan oil reserves. The administration has already obtained over 80 million barrels of oil from Venezuela, according to Trump’s State of the Union address last month. CNN reports Trump described the Venezuela operation as a “perfect” example of regime change.

Potential Complications with Iran

However, analysts caution that the situation in Iran is significantly different from Venezuela. Politico highlights that Trump does not have a clear successor in Iran as he did in Venezuela. The Iranian regime is more ideologically driven and has a more distributed authority structure, making a swift transition less likely.

Impact on China

Seizing Iranian oil could strain relations with China, which currently receives approximately 80% of Iran’s crude oil exports. CNN notes China is America’s biggest geopolitical rival and the world’s second-largest economy.

Oil Prices and Military Operations

The conflict with Iran has already impacted global oil prices, which have surged past $100 a barrel. Iran is the world’s ninth-leading oil producer, accounting for about 5% of total output. The U.S.-Israeli joint attack on Iran, launched February 28th, targeted the country’s missile capabilities and leadership, resulting in the deaths of over 1,200 Iranians, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and six U.S. Service members. USA Today reports that Trump has unleashed U.S. Military power on eight nations in his first year back in office.

Domestic Political Considerations

Trump also addressed domestic issues, including a bill aimed at tightening voting requirements (the SAVE America Act) and a Republican primary challenge to Senator John Cornyn of Texas. He indicated he would not prioritize other legislation until the SAVE America Act is passed, which requires proof of citizenship for voter registration. However, he expressed uncertainty about its passage in the Senate. Forbes suggests that Trump’s endgame in Iran is mirroring, and going beyond, what happened in Venezuela.

New Leadership in Iran

Trump expressed disapproval of Iran’s selection of Motjaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the new supreme leader, calling it a “big mistake.”

Dignified Transfer Ceremony

Trump attended a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware, honoring the six U.S. Service members killed in the Iran conflict.