Secret government analysis warns that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a “summer of shortages” across UK supermarket shelves. This disruption threatens the production of pork, chicken, and other essential goods as the Iran war destabilizes critical supply chains.
The Times reports that government officials fear a shortage of carbon dioxide, which the food industry requires for production. This bottleneck in the supply of CO2 could lead to immediate deficits in meat availability and other processed foods.
A senior government source told BBC Newsnight that these plans address a worst-case scenario. The source clarified that the analysis is a planning exercise rather than a definitive prediction of coming shortages.
Why carbon dioxide shortages threaten food production
The food industry relies on carbon dioxide for various stages of processing and preservation. Because the Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil flows and associated chemical precursors, its closure disrupts the movement of industrial gases.
Reduced availability of these materials directly impacts the ability of producers to process chicken and pork. These shortages would likely increase cost-of-living pressures for consumers if global shipping doesn’t resume.
The UK is coordinating a multinational diplomatic response
The UK and France are co-hosting an international summit of more than 40 nations this week. The conference aims to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and safeguard commercial shipping once the current conflict ends.
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Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated the UK isn’t supporting the U.S. Blockade of Iranian ports, which President Donald Trump scheduled to initiate at 10 a.m. ET on Monday. Starmer told BBC Radio 5 Live that the UK’s focus remains on getting the strait fully open rather than shutting it.
This diplomatic push follows a March 19, 2026, joint statement from the UK, France, Germany, and other allies. The group condemned Iran’s de facto closure of the strait and called for an immediate moratorium on attacks against civilian infrastructure and oil installations.
Across the Gulf, naval limitations hinder mine-clearing
Intelligence suggests Iran laid at least a dozen mines to impede oil tankers and other vessels. Whereas the U.S. Bombing campaign may have reduced Iran’s naval capacity, small boats can still deploy mines from the Iranian arsenal.
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The Royal Navy faces significant capacity constraints in responding to these threats. The UK has seven mine-hunting vessels in its fleet, but four are currently unavailable for immediate operations.
The UK brought home its last vessel in Bahrain, HMS Middleton, days before US and Israeli strikes on Iran began. These depleted resources likely indicate the UK will play a limited role in the physical clearing of the waterway.
Which specific food items are at risk of shortages?
Government analysis indicates that the production of chicken, pork, and other goods could be affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
How does the government view these shortage warnings?
A senior government source stated that the planning for a “summer of shortages” is based on a worst-case scenario and isn’t a prediction of what will happen.