While ongoing showers might suggest this Christmas will be a washout, experts say a wintry snap is on its way and some areas of the UK might even have a white Christmas.
According to the Met Office, high pressure is building – meaning that, while some areas may experience showers, many will have drier and more settled weather.
The UK’s national meteorological service added that a strong easterly breeze would make it feel colder – even though not unusually so for this time of year, with temperatures on Christmas Day expected to reach a daytime high of 7C and night-time lows at -3C or -4C. As a result,Father christmas might be accompanied by Jack Frost.
“The south coast of England down towards South Devon and Cornwall perhaps [has] the greatest chance of seeing the odd wintry flurry if there were to be [any],” Marco Petagna of the Met Office told the Guardian. “Of course, for a white Christmas, technically now all we need is one flake of snow to fall anywhere in the UK. And it’s not an unusual occurrence – it’s more unusual for it to be lying snow.”
[Image of Snow in Holcombe, Greater Manchester, February 2021. Most of the UK’s snow days actually happen between January and March. Photograph: Christopher thomond/The Guardian]
According to the Royal Meteorological society (RMetS), a snowflake has tumbled from the sky on Christmas Day 54 times over the past 66 years at least somewhere in the UK, and accept 2024, every year as 2020 has technically been deemed “white”.
In 2023, 11% of weather stations recorded snow falling on Christmas day, and 9% in 2022, although snow was not recorded as settling in either year. Indeed, as the RMetS notes, a thick blanket of snow at Christmas has only occurred four times since 1960 – in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010 – with 2010 having snow on the ground at 83% of stations, the highest percentage ever recorded.
But anyone expecting festive snowball fights…
White Christmas Becoming Rarer in the UK Due to Climate Change
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The chances of a conventional white Christmas in the UK are diminishing as the climate crisis continues to impact weather patterns. While a snowy Christmas isn’t entirely off the cards, data indicates that December temperatures have risen in recent decades, making snowfall on Christmas Day increasingly unlikely. However, snow isn’t disappearing from the UK altogether; the majority of snow days typically occur between January and March.
The Declining Trend of Snowy Christmases
The Met Office has observed a clear warming trend in UK Decembers.This warming reduces the likelihood of the conditions necessary for snowfall on Christmas Day. According to the Met office, between 1990 and 2023, only three Christmas Days across the UK saw widespread snow cover: 1995, 2010, and 2021.The Met Office defines a “White Christmas” as at least one observation of snow falling on Christmas Day.
This decline isn’t simply a matter of random variation. The UK Climate change Risk Assessment highlights increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns as key risks, directly impacting snowfall. The report details how the UK is already experiencing more frequent and intense extreme weather events, a trend expected to continue with further warming.
Understanding the Science: Climate Change and Snowfall
The relationship between climate change and snowfall is complex. While warmer temperatures generally reduce the frequency of snowfall, a warmer atmosphere can also hold more moisture. This means that when conditions are right for snow, it can sometimes be heavier. Though, this doesn’t offset the overall trend of decreasing snow cover, particularly at lower altitudes.
Here’s a breakdown of the key factors:
* Rising Temperatures: Warmer temperatures mean more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow.
* Changing Jet Stream: Climate change is altering the position and behavior of the jet stream, influencing weather patterns across the UK and making consistent cold spells less common.
* Reduced Cold Air Outbreaks: The frequency of Arctic air masses reaching the UK is decreasing, further reducing the chances of widespread snowfall.
when Can We Expect Snow in the UK?
Despite the declining chances of a white Christmas, the UK still experiences significant snowfall. The Met Office notes that most snow days occur between January and march. These months are typically colder, increasing the likelihood of precipitation falling as snow.
The eastern and northern parts of the UK are generally more prone to snowfall due to their geographical location and exposure to cold air from the Arctic and continental Europe. Higher elevations,such as the scottish Highlands and the pennines,also receive more snow due to the cooling effect of altitude.
Looking Ahead
The trend towards warmer winters and less frequent snowfall is expected to continue as the climate crisis intensifies. While enjoying a snowy Christmas remains a cherished hope for many, the reality is that it’s becoming increasingly rare. Addressing climate change through reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to mitigating these changes and preserving the possibility of winter snow for future generations. As the poet Sara Coleridge observed, “January brings the snow, makes our feet and fingers glow,” but whether that remains true for future winters depends on the actions taken today.
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