Ukraine Faces Demographic Catastrophe as War Enters Fourth Year
As the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth anniversary, the nation is grappling with a severe demographic crisis characterized by a collapsing birth rate, mounting casualties, and a mass exodus of refugees. Leading Ukrainian demographer Ella Libanova describes the situation as a “catastrophe,” warning that a country cannot exist without its people.
Scale of Losses and Declining Birth Rate
Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine is estimated to have lost approximately 10 million people – encompassing those killed, those who have fled the country, and those residing in occupied territories. While Ukraine does not publicly disclose its casualty figures, a January 2025 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates between 100,000 and 140,000 Ukrainian deaths since the invasion began.1
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is notably high, around 43 years traditional, due to the relatively older conscription age and exemptions for younger recruits. A disproportionate number of those killed in action are married individuals with children, leading to a surge in the number of widows and orphans within the country. As of now, there are 59,000 children in Ukraine without biological parents, with the majority living in foster families.1
Ukraine’s total fertility rate has fallen below one child per woman, significantly lower than the European average of 1.4 and the U.S. Rate of 1.6.1
The Challenge of Refugee Return and ‘Brain Drain’
Approximately 6 million Ukrainians, predominantly women and children, have fled Ukraine and registered as refugees abroad since 2022.3 Libanova notes that the longer the conflict persists, the less likely these refugees are to return.3
This mass exodus is likewise contributing to a significant “brain drain” for Ukraine. Libanova expresses hope that skilled professionals will return to aid in the country’s reconstruction, but doubts that a sufficient number will do so, potentially necessitating the recruitment of foreign specialists.1
Current Situation and Future Outlook
Despite the ongoing war, some Ukrainians are still choosing to have children. Still, data from the Leleka hospital illustrates the severity of the demographic crisis: births decreased from 2,300 in 2020 to 868 in 2022, and 952 in 2023.2
Ukraine is also experiencing population aging and is looking to Japan for guidance on integrating older people into active community life, seeking a strategic partnership in this area.2
The long-term consequences of this demographic crisis remain uncertain, but Libanova warns that if less than 50% of refugees return after the end of hostilities, it will be a significant loss for Ukraine.1
1 CNN. “Ukraine is becoming a nation of widows and orphans as it battles to survive.” February 22, 2026. https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/22/europe/ukraine-widows-demographic-crisis-intl
2 RBC-Ukraine. “Refugee issue: how many Ukrainians will return after the war?” April 20, 2023. https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/interview/the-issue-of-refugees-how-many-ukrainians-1688637694.html
3 CEPA. “Will Ukrainian Refugees Ever Return Home?” September 3, 2025. https://cepa.org/article/will-ukrainian-refugees-ever-return-home/