Ukraine Maintains Economic Stability Amidst War, EBRD Reports
Despite the ongoing conflict with Russia, Ukraine is demonstrating remarkable macroeconomic stability, according to the latest report from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). While challenges remain, the Ukrainian economy has shown resilience and adaptability, achieving a real GDP growth of 2.0% in 2025.
Economic Growth and Resilience
Initial economic slowdowns in early 2025 were overcome, with real GDP growth accelerating to 3.0% by the end of the year. The EBRD now forecasts a 2.5% growth in real GDP for 2026, assuming the war continues throughout the year. Should a peace agreement be reached, growth is projected to rise to 4.0% in 2027 EBRD.
The report highlights the significant role of external financing in supporting Ukraine’s macroeconomic stability, with over €110 billion committed for 2026-2027. This funding is crucial for maintaining public services and defense spending.
Challenges and Constraints
Economic performance in 2025 was impacted by several wartime constraints, including power shortages, reduced agricultural output, and labor shortages. Russia’s targeted attacks on infrastructure also created logistical bottlenecks. The trade deficit widened due to declining grain exports and the expiration of temporary trade preferences granted by the European Union.
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Inflation, which was elevated at the beginning of 2025, decreased significantly in the latter half of the year due to tighter monetary policy, easing cost pressures, and a stable exchange rate. By January 2026, inflation had fallen to 7.4%. The central bank responded by cutting the interest rate by 50 basis points in January 2026.
EBRD Support for Ukraine
The EBRD has been a major investor in Ukraine, providing over €9.0 billion in support since the start of the full-scale war in February 2022. This support focuses on key areas such as energy security, vital infrastructure, food security, trade, and the private sector EBRD.
Gas Import Funding Discussions
In October 2025, Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko met with Matteo Patrone, Vice President of the EBRD, to discuss financial support for additional gas imports in preparation for the winter months, amid increasing Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector Kyiv Independent.
Despite the ongoing war, Ukraine’s authorities, businesses, and international partners have demonstrated a strong capacity to stabilize the economy under unprecedented conditions.