Ukraine Braces for Significant Flooding as Temperatures Rise

Ukraine is preparing for potentially significant flooding across several regions as warmer temperatures trigger rapid snowmelt. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center (UHMC) has issued warnings, anticipating water levels not seen in the past decade in some areas.

Expected Flood Conditions

Specialists at the UHMC predict fluctuations in water levels on rivers due to the sharp increase in air temperature and intensive snow melting. The most immediate concerns are focused on the Southern Bug basin, the Ingul River, and its tributaries, with water rises expected between February 23rd and 26th.

According to Ilya Perevozchikov, a specialist from the hydrological forecast department of the UHMC, conditions are favorable for spring floods, stating, “We can say that over the past 10 years there has been no significant flooding on the Southern Bug and Seversky Donets rivers and adjacent territories, which is why we expect a significant rise in water this year.”

Regional Risks and Alert Levels

Several regions are facing potential flooding:

• Kirovograd, Cherkassy, Odessa, and Nikolaev regions: Water levels may rise by 0.2 – 0.7 meters, with a yellow alert level declared.
• Kropyvnytskyi: The situation is considered the most critical, with a potential for partial flooding of residential buildings on coastal streets, corresponding to an orange risk level.
• Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy regions: Water levels on rivers within the Middle Dnieper sub-basin may rise by 0.1 – 0.4 meters.
• Stugna River (near Zdorovka gauging station): Initial release of water onto the floodplain and flooding of low-lying areas are predicted.

Regional Preparedness

Vyacheslav Chaus, head of the Chernigov regional military administration, reported on Facebook that a meeting of the regional commission on fuel and energy safety and emergency situations was held to prepare for a possible spring flood. Approximately fifty settlements are within the potential risk zone in that region.

Weather Forecast

The first half of the week will be relatively warm, with temperatures ranging from -1 to +4 degrees Celsius due to a cyclonic system from the Atlantic. However, a short-term Arctic invasion is expected from February 26th, influenced by a Scandinavian anticyclone. Warming is anticipated in early March, potentially accelerating snowmelt and increasing water levels.

About the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center

The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center (УкрГМЦ) is the national hydrometeorological service of Ukraine. Established through a historical progression from early meteorological observatories in the 17th and 19th centuries to the modern Ukrmet founded in 1921, the UHMC provides weather forecasts and warnings. Learn more about the UHMC’s history and functions.