Life Expectancy in the U.S.: Trends, Disparities, and Future Outlook

Following declines during the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy in the United States is rebounding, but significant racial and ethnic disparities persist. While overall life expectancy is improving, with estimates for 2024 suggesting a return to pre-pandemic levels, these gains are not evenly distributed across all populations. This analysis examines recent trends in life expectancy, the factors driving these changes, and the ongoing challenges in achieving health equity.

Recent Trends in Life Expectancy

Between 2021 and 2023, life expectancy increased across all racial and ethnic groups. The largest gains were observed among American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) individuals, with an increase of 4.5 years, followed by Hispanic individuals (3.5 years) and Black individuals (2.8 years). Despite these improvements, disparities remain stark. As of 2023, life expectancy was lowest for AIAN individuals at 70.1 years, followed by Black individuals at 74 years. In comparison, White individuals had a life expectancy of 78.4 years, Hispanic individuals 81.3 years, and Asian individuals 85.2 years. Data were not available for Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander (NHPI) populations. KFF

Overall life expectancy estimates for 2024 reveal an increase of 2.9 years (76.1 to 79.0 years) between 2021 and 2024, reversing the declines experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although, race and ethnicity specific data for 2024 are not yet available. KFF

The Impact of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted life expectancy, leading to a 2.7-year decline between 2019 and 2021. KFF This decline was particularly pronounced among AIAN, Hispanic, and Black populations, reflecting their disproportionate exposure to the virus and limited access to healthcare. The subsequent increase in life expectancy since 2021 is largely attributable to the decline in COVID-19 deaths. KFF

Research indicates that people of color accounted for 59% of excess years of life lost during the pandemic, despite representing 40% of the U.S. Population. KFF

Beyond COVID-19: Other Contributing Factors

While the decline in COVID-19 deaths is a major driver of recent gains in life expectancy, other factors also play a role. For AIAN individuals, improvements are linked to declines in deaths from chronic liver disease, heart disease, diabetes, and accidents. Hispanic individuals have seen gains due to reductions in deaths from heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and Alzheimer’s disease. Improvements for Black individuals are associated with declines in deaths from COVID-19, heart disease, homicide, diabetes, and cancer. KFF

However, increases in deaths from certain causes, such as suicide, birth defects, nutritional deficiencies, and specific infectious diseases, have tempered overall gains in some groups. KFF

Leading Causes of Death

Prior to the pandemic, heart disease and cancer were the leading causes of death across most racial and ethnic groups. COVID-19 emerged as a top three cause of death in all groups during 2020 and 2021. By 2023, COVID-19 had fallen to eighth place among White individuals and was no longer among the top ten causes of death for other groups. KFF Heart disease and cancer have re-emerged as the primary causes of death. Among AIAN individuals, accidents and drug overdoses rank third and fourth, respectively, and suicide is a significant contributor. Homicide remains a leading cause of death for Black individuals, highlighting disparities in gun violence. KFF

Addressing Disparities

Racial and ethnic disparities in life expectancy are rooted in complex factors, including differences in health insurance coverage, access to care, social determinants of health, and systemic racism. People of color are less likely to have health insurance and face barriers to accessing quality healthcare. KFF Historic and ongoing economic inequities, such as residential segregation, also contribute to these disparities. KFF

The “Hispanic paradox,” where Hispanic individuals often have longer life expectancies despite facing socioeconomic challenges, may be attributed to factors such as favorable outcomes among recent immigrants. However, this phenomenon is not fully understood. Similarly, broad measures of life expectancy for Asian individuals may mask variations among subgroups with differing health access and socioeconomic factors. KFF

Looking Ahead

Addressing racial and ethnic disparities in life expectancy requires comprehensive strategies that tackle the underlying social, economic, and healthcare inequities. Expanding access to affordable healthcare, investing in community-based programs, and addressing systemic racism are crucial steps toward achieving health equity and ensuring that all individuals have the opportunity to live long and healthy lives. KFF