UK Fuel Prices: Middle East Tensions Drive Up Costs at the Pump
Motorists across the United Kingdom are facing increasing fuel prices as escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupt global oil supplies. Diesel prices have already surged to a 16-month high, and petrol prices are also on the rise, prompting some drivers to queue for fuel despite warnings against panic buying.
Rising Fuel Costs: A Snapshot
As of March 7, 2026, the average price of a litre of diesel at UK forecourts has risen to 148p, an increase of nearly 6p since Saturday, February 29, 2026. This is the highest price since mid-August 2024. Petrol prices have increased by almost 4p per litre since Saturday, reaching 137p.
These increases translate to a roughly £2 increase in the cost of filling a typical 55-litre family car with petrol, and approximately £3.30 more for diesel vehicles.
Oil Price Surge: The Root Cause
The primary driver of these price increases is a surge in oil prices, triggered by disruption to tanker traffic in the Middle East. The price of Brent crude oil has risen by approximately 21% over the past week, exceeding $88 (£66) a barrel on Friday, March 6, 2026. On Thursday, March 5, 2026, Brent crude jumped to $85 (£64) a barrel, a level not seen since July 2024.
Impact of Middle East Conflict
The current situation stems from escalating conflict in the Middle East, including retaliatory attacks by Iran following strikes on its missile infrastructure, military installations, and senior commanders. These actions have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gas supplies. More than 200 ships have reportedly been anchored outside the strait due to attacks in Gulf waters, raising concerns about further disruptions to fuel supplies and prices.
Will Prices Continue to Rise?
RAC head of policy, Simon Williams, notes that while wholesale costs have increased for retailers, it typically takes two weeks for these changes to be reflected at the forecourt. He suggests that if the price of a barrel remains at current levels or continues to rise, further increases at the pump are “inevitable.”
Analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) indicates that if oil trading reaches $100 (£75) a barrel, petrol prices could climb to 150p per litre.
Panic Buying and Expert Advice
Despite assurances from the AA that there is “no need for drivers to break their refuelling routine,” reports of long queues at petrol stations have emerged across the UK, with some stations experiencing supply shortages, particularly for unleaded fuel. For example, a Tesco petrol station in South Queensferry, Scotland, reportedly ran out of unleaded fuel.
Experts advise against panic buying, emphasizing that it creates unnecessary demand and can worsen the situation. The AA points out that pump averages are still below the start of the year and that petrol is almost 6.5p a litre cheaper than in early March 2025.
Looking Ahead
The situation remains fluid and dependent on the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. Continued disruption to oil supplies could lead to further price increases, while a de-escalation of tensions could stabilize or even lower prices. Motorists are advised to stay informed and to avoid unnecessary fuel purchases.