Victorian Liberals Plan to Preference One Nation Over Labor in State Election The Victorian Liberal Party is set to preference One Nation ahead of the Australian Labor Party as a default position in the upcoming November state election, according to multiple reports. This strategic shift marks a significant development in Victoria’s political landscape, with potential implications for both major parties and minor right-wing movements. Internal discussions within the Liberal Party’s five-person state strategy committee have indicated that, barring exceptional circumstances such as a particularly controversial candidate, One Nation will receive higher preferences than Labor on how-to-vote cards. While final decisions will be made on a seat-by-seat basis after nominations close, sources confirm the party intends to utilize this approach to consolidate the anti-Labor vote across the state. Former Victorian Premier Steve Bracks has strongly criticised the proposed preference deal, warning that it would legitimise Pauline Hanson’s party and accelerate the decline of traditional centre-right politics in Australia. Speaking at the Sorrento Writers’ Festival, Bracks drew parallels between the Victorian Liberals’ current trajectory and the fate of centre-right parties in Europe, stating, “All that will do is legitimise One Nation and that is outrageous.” The strategy carries notable risks for the Liberal Party, particularly in urban and middle-suburb electorates where voter backlash could undermine their traditional base. Seats such as Malvern, Kew, and Hawthorn—held by prominent Liberal MPs including Amelia Hamer, Jess Wilson, and John Pesutto—are identified as vulnerable to defection toward teal independents or other moderate alternatives if the party appears to align too closely with One Nation. Conversely, the preference arrangement may benefit the Liberals in outer suburban and regional areas where One Nation is gaining traction. Polling data cited in recent analyses shows a sharp increase in support for the party, with first-preference votes ranging from 11% to as high as 26.5% in various surveys conducted earlier in 2026. This represents a dramatic rise from just 0.22% in the 2022 state election, when One Nation secured only a single upper-house seat and 8,077 lower-house votes statewide. Despite the growing electoral threat posed by One Nation, the Liberal Party remains divided on how to respond. Leader Jess Wilson has faced mounting pressure to clarify her stance on any potential accommodation with Hanson’s movement, particularly as internal polling suggests her own seat of Kew could be at risk due to combined pressures from One Nation and teal challengers. Analysts note that while preference deals with One Nation could support Labor lose ground in certain electorates—such as Melton and Cranbourne—they may simultaneously weaken the Liberal Party’s hold on traditionally safe metropolitan seats. The November 28 election will be the first in Victoria where One Nation is expected to play a decisive role in determining the outcome, marking a pivotal moment in the state’s political evolution.
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