Vietnam’s Banking Sector Poised for Growth as Credit Quotas End in 2026

As Vietnam enters 2026, its banking sector is on the cusp of significant transformation. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is preparing to phase out longstanding credit growth quotas, a move expected to stimulate economic growth even as navigating a complex global landscape. This shift, coupled with tightening Basel III capital rules, aims to create a more resilient and competitive banking system.

The End of Credit Quotas: A New Era for Vietnamese Banks

For years, Vietnam has utilized administrative credit growth quotas to manage inflation and maintain macroeconomic balance. However, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has directed the SBV to develop a roadmap for replacing these quotas with a more transparent regulatory framework, beginning in 2026. [1] This move signifies a fundamental reshaping of the country’s banking system, moving away from a discretionary “question-give” mechanism.

Under the new system, commercial banks will be evaluated based on clear performance metrics and compliance with prudential standards to determine their lending capacities. The SBV is committed to ensuring public transparency and strengthening supervision to mitigate systemic risks. [1]

Economic Growth and Macroeconomic Stability

The decision to end credit quotas comes as Vietnam aims for robust economic growth. The country’s GDP expanded by 8.02% in 2025, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia. [3] Forecasts for 2026 remain optimistic, with the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) projecting a GDP growth of 7.6%, the highest within the ASEAN+3 grouping. [3] UOB forecasts 7.5% growth, HSBC projects 6.7%, and the World Bank estimates 6.3%.

The SBV has set a target of 15% credit growth for the entire banking system in 2026, prioritizing capital for production and strictly controlling risky sectors. [4] This target may be adjusted based on inflation and the economy’s capacity to absorb capital.

Supporting Sectors and Mitigating Risks

In 2025, the banking sector actively supported key economic sectors through targeted lending programs, including:

• Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Loan Program: Expanded from VND 15 trillion to VND 185 trillion, with VND 168 trillion disbursed to over 52,000 customers.
• 1 Million Hectare High-Quality, Low-Emission Rice Project: Supporting sustainable agricultural practices in the Mekong Delta.
• VND500 Trillion Credit Program: Focused on investments in electricity infrastructure, transportation, and strategic technologies.
• Social Housing Loan Program: Addressing housing needs for workers and vulnerable populations.

The SBV also implemented measures to support individuals and businesses affected by natural disasters, including restructuring loan repayment terms, reducing interest rates, and providing new loans for recovery. [2]

Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Effective macroeconomic management requires close coordination between monetary, fiscal, and capital market policies. The SBV has consistently worked with relevant ministries and agencies to maintain macroeconomic stability, control inflation, and promote growth. This coordination has contributed to Vietnam’s improved national credit rating, attracting foreign investment.

Looking ahead, the SBV will continue to prioritize combating inflation and maintaining macroeconomic stability while supporting sustainable economic growth. The bank will also focus on strengthening the regulatory framework, promoting digital transformation, and ensuring the safety and soundness of the banking system.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Vietnam’s banking sector is poised for a period of dynamic growth and transformation. The removal of credit quotas, coupled with prudent regulatory oversight, is expected to unlock new opportunities for banks and businesses alike. While global economic uncertainties remain, Vietnam’s strong economic fundamentals and proactive policy measures position it for continued success in 2026 and beyond.