With Thanksgiving less than three weeks away,the question of how much this year’s turkey and trimmings will cost looms large,especially with grocery prices 2.7% higher than they were in 2024.
President Donald trump has claimed over the past two days that costs for the Thanksgiving meal are down 25% this year, citing a prepackaged Thanksgiving meal basket from Walmart.
“I just saw that Walmart came out with a statement last night, they’ve done it for many years, that Thanksgiving this year will cost 25% less than Thanksgiving last year,” he said during a news conference on Friday with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
But Trump’s numbers are off. Here’s a closer look at the facts.
CLAIM: Walmart prices show that the cost of Thanksgiving dinner is 25% lower in 2025 than in 2024.
THE FACTS: This is misleading. While Walmart’s 2025 meal basket costs about 25% less than the one from 2024, that’s as it offers fewer items and different products that make it more affordable.
“It’s not apples to apples, right?” said David Anderson, a livestock economist at Texas A&M University. “What this does highlight is individual retailers’ strategies for getting customers in the door.”
The 2025 basket costs less than $40 and feeds 10 people, about $4 a head, according to Walmart. In 2024, a basket for eight cost approximately $56, less than $7 per person. That’s about a 25% decrease,possibly more depending on price fluctuations. John Furner,president and CEO of Walmart U.S., acknowledged the comparison isn’t exact, noting the 2025 basket includes a smaller turkey and different brands.
Thanksgiving Dinner Costs in 2025: What to expect
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Despite concerns about rising wholesale turkey prices, the overall cost of a conventional 10-person Thanksgiving meal is projected to be slightly lower in 2025 than in 2024, falling between 2% and 3%. This estimate, cited in a recent White House press release, hinges on consumer choices between national brands and store-label products. However, the price of the Thanksgiving centerpiece – the turkey – is a significant point of concern for economists.
Turkey Prices: A Complex Picture
While the overall meal cost is expected to decrease, turkey prices are experiencing considerable volatility. Several factors contribute to this complexity:
* Wholesale Price Surge: According to Purdue University’s College of Agriculture,wholesale turkey prices have risen by a considerable 75% since October 2024. https://ag.purdue.edu/cfdas/chew-on-this/the-expected-cost-of-your-thanksgiving-turkey-in-2025/#:~:text=this%20year’s%20Thanksgiving%20centerpiece%20comes,(See%20Figure%201.))
* Retail Price Increase: Retail turkey prices are currently 25% higher than they were a year ago.
* Earlier Estimates: The American farm Bureau Federation previously reported a 40% increase in wholesale turkey prices.https://www.fb.org/market-intel/turkey-farmers-brace-for-uptick-in-hpai
* Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI): A key driver of these price increases is the ongoing threat of HPAI, commonly known as bird flu. Outbreaks lead to the culling of turkeys,reducing supply and driving up prices. The American Farm bureau federation notes that turkey farmers are bracing for a potential uptick in HPAI cases.
Why Retail Prices May Differ
Despite the significant increases in wholesale prices,not all consumers will necessarily pay more for thier Thanksgiving turkey. Retailers like Walmart utilize advance contracts with turkey suppliers.
“That gives them the flexibility to run those types of specials,” explained an industry analyst. These pre-negotiated contracts allow retailers to offer lower prices to customers,potentially offsetting the broader market increases.
Beyond Turkey: Factors Influencing Overall Cost
The 2-3% decrease in overall Thanksgiving meal costs is highly likely due to price stability or decreases in othre key ingredients. These could include:
* Produce: Seasonal availability of vegetables like potatoes, sweet potatoes, and cranberries can definitely help keep prices down.
* Grains: Prices for wheat (used in stuffing and pies) and corn (used for feeding turkeys) can influence the overall cost.
* Dairy: Butter and milk prices, while subject to fluctuation, may remain relatively stable.
Looking Ahead
The Thanksgiving meal cost in 2025 presents a mixed bag. While the overall cost is projected to be slightly lower than last year, the price of turkey remains a significant concern. Consumers can mitigate potential price increases by:
* Shopping strategically: Comparing prices at different stores and considering store brands.
* Planning ahead: Purchasing non-perishable items early.
* Considering alternative proteins: Exploring options beyond turkey, such as chicken or ham.
As Thanksgiving approaches, continued monitoring of market conditions and HPAI outbreaks will be crucial in determining the final cost of the holiday meal.