OPEC+ Meeting, Key Economic Data Dominate Next Week’s Outlook

The coming week is set to be a busy one for global markets, with a pivotal OPEC+ meeting on Sunday taking center stage alongside a raft of crucial economic data releases from the US, Europe, Australia and China. Investors will be closely monitoring these events for signals about the future direction of oil prices, inflation, and economic growth.

OPEC+ Meeting: Potential for Output Increase

On Sunday, March 1st, the eight core OPEC+ members – Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – will convene to determine whether to begin unwinding their current 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of voluntary oil production cuts starting in April, or to extend the pause into the second quarter. Recent reports from Bloomberg and Reuters suggest a leaning towards resuming gradual output increases, potentially around 137,000 bpd from April. Investing.com notes this marks a shift from earlier expectations of a continued freeze.

Brent crude has recovered to around $71 per barrel, supported by geopolitical risk premia and supply disruptions, including in Kazakhstan. This provides the alliance with greater flexibility to increase production without significantly undermining prices. The rationale behind a potential increase includes preparing for stronger summer demand and allowing members like the UAE to utilize expanded capacity, although also managing market share against non-OPEC producers. However, the decision remains contingent on data and market conditions, with delegates indicating a potential extension of the pause if conditions deteriorate.

Key Economic Data Releases

United States

• Monday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (February)
• Friday: US NFP (February), US Retail Sales (January)

The S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.2 in February, from 52.7 in January, signaling softening demand but continued expansion. InvestingLive reports that output growth eased to its weakest since July, while new orders slipped slightly for the second time in three months.

January’s retail sales data will be closely watched alongside recent consumer checkpoint data from Bank of America, which showed total card spending rose 2.6% year-over-year in January, the strongest pace in nearly two years despite weather-related disruptions.

The February jobs report will be scrutinized to determine if January’s stronger-than-expected 130,000 payroll gain and the drop in unemployment to 4.3% marked a turning point.

Europe

• Tuesday: EZ Flash HICP (February)
• Thursday: ECB Minutes (February)

EZ Flash HICP is expected to show a slight increase, but the European Central Bank (ECB) does not appear in a hurry to cut rates, with President Lagarde recently stating that “inflation and policy remain in a good place.” ECB Economic Bulletin notes that the ECB will publish the Monetary Policy Accounts from the February 5th meeting, which will be scrutinized for internal debate over services price stickiness and how close policymakers are to cutting rates.

Other Key Releases

• Monday: German Retail Sales (January)
• Wednesday: Australian GDP (Q4), Chinese NBS PMIs (February)
• Tuesday: UK Spring Statement

Australia’s Q4 2025 GDP is expected to rebound strongly, forecasting growth of 0.9% quarter-over-quarter. InvestingLive reports that February’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain close to the 50.0 threshold, with forecasts around 49.5-50.0.

The UK Spring Statement, presented by Chancellor Reeves, is expected to be a non-event for markets, with no new spending or tax adjustments anticipated.

Looking Ahead

The confluence of the OPEC+ meeting and the release of key economic data will likely drive market volatility in the coming week. Investors will be carefully analyzing these developments to assess the outlook for oil prices, inflation, and global economic growth.