Why Yemen’s Houthis Are Staying Out of Iran’s Conflict with US and Israel

As tensions escalate between Iran and the United States and Israel, a notable absence in the regional response has been that of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, a key ally of Iran. Whereas Iran-aligned groups in Lebanon and Iraq have actively joined the fray, the Houthis have so far limited their involvement to rhetoric and protests, despite possessing the capability to significantly disrupt regional shipping and target Gulf states.

The Houthis and Iran’s Regional Network

The Houthis, who seized control of the Yemeni capital Sanaa in 2014, have cultivated close ties with Iran, receiving support that has bolstered their military capabilities. Reuters reports that the group has a history of fighting guerrilla wars and expanded its power following the 2011 Arab Spring protests. Their strategic location and arsenal make their potential involvement a significant factor in the broader conflict.

Reasons for Restraint

Several factors appear to be influencing the Houthis’ decision to remain largely on the sidelines. Analysts suggest a combination of ideological considerations, domestic priorities within Yemen, and a calculated assessment of the risks involved.

Domestic Priorities in Yemen

The Houthis are currently focused on consolidating their control within Yemen and addressing the ongoing civil war. The Indian Express highlights that domestic priorities are a key consideration. Diverting resources to a wider regional conflict could jeopardize their position and stability within Yemen.

Risk of Retaliation

A major deterrent for the Houthis is the potential for direct and severe retaliation from the United States and Israel. Al Jazeera notes that Houthi leadership is cautious, fearing Israeli retaliation following past air strikes and leadership losses. The Houthis have already been targeted for their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, and a broader engagement could invite a more forceful response.

Phased Escalation Possible

Despite their current restraint, the possibility of Houthi intervention remains. ACLED conflict monitor suggests that any involvement could take the form of a phased escalation, allowing the Houthis to gauge the situation and calibrate their response accordingly. This approach allows them to support Iran without immediately exposing themselves to full-scale retaliation.

The Houthis’ Previous Actions

Since the start of Israel’s war on Gaza in October 2023, the Houthis have launched repeated attacks on US and Israeli targets. Though, in the week following the US-Israeli attacks on Iran beginning February 28, their support for Tehran was limited to rhetoric and a mass protest.

Looking Ahead

The Houthis’ continued restraint is a significant factor in the evolving dynamics of the Iran-US-Israel conflict. While their potential involvement remains a concern, their current focus on domestic stability and avoidance of direct retaliation suggests a cautious approach. The situation remains fluid, and the Houthis’ actions will likely be dictated by the unfolding events and their assessment of the risks and opportunities.