End of Russian Gas Transit to Europe via Ukraine: A New Era for EU Energy Security

The era of Russian gas dominance in Europe has effectively ended with the cessation of transit flows through Ukraine as of January 1, 2025. This marks the conclusion of a decades-long arrangement and a significant shift in the European energy landscape, driven by geopolitical factors and a concerted effort by the EU to diversify its energy sources. While the immediate physical impact on overall supply is limited, the strategic and symbolic consequences are substantial.

The End of an Era

For over 40 years, Russia has utilized Ukraine as a key transit route for natural gas deliveries to European markets. However, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU drastically reduced its reliance on Russian gas, falling from 40% of imports in 2021 to less than 10% in 2023 ¹. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine would not allow Russia to profit from gas transit revenue during the ongoing conflict ¹. The five-year transit deal between Gazprom and Naftogaz expired, and Ukraine declined to renew it.

Impact on European Gas Flows

The end of transit via Ukraine has prompted shifts in gas flows within Europe. Slovakia, previously a recipient of Russian gas via Ukraine and Hungary, has begun sending gas to Ukraine itself in the first half of 2025 ². The EU as a whole saw a 9% decline in pipeline gas imports in the first half of 2025, coinciding with the end of the transit agreement, increasing reliance on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and demand reduction measures ².

Alternative Supply Routes

Despite the halt in transit through Ukraine, Russia continues to supply gas to Hungary, Turkey, and Serbia via the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea ¹. However, this route does not fully compensate for the loss of the Ukrainian transit corridor. Several EU member states, including Slovakia and Austria, had continued to import significant amounts of Russian gas even after the invasion of Ukraine, but have been actively diversifying their sources ¹.

Challenges and Concerns

While the EU has largely prepared for this change, some countries face greater challenges than others. Moldova, which is not an EU member, is already experiencing gas shortages ¹. The shutdown of the Ukrainian transit route could potentially lead to energy crises in Eastern Europe, particularly in regions like Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova, which has already cut heat and hot water supplies ³. Russia itself has lost a significant market, though President Putin suggests EU countries will bear the brunt of the consequences ¹.

Looking Ahead

The end of Russian gas transit via Ukraine represents a pivotal moment for European energy security. The EU’s focus on LNG, renewable energy sources, and demand reduction will be crucial in navigating this new landscape. Accelerating the installation of renewable energy and heat pumps is essential to bolster energy security and shield consumers from volatile gas prices ². The long-term implications will depend on factors such as global gas prices, geopolitical developments, and the pace of the energy transition.