NFL Quarterback Outlook for 2026: A Team-by-Team Prediction

Feb. 17, 2026, 6:04 a.m. ET – Super Bowl 60 is now in the books, with the Seattle Seahawks’ 29-13 win over the Fresh England Patriots marking the end of the 2025 NFL season. As the league looks ahead to the 2026 season, significant turnover has already occurred, with ten teams making coaching changes and 21 set to have new offensive coordinators. The quarterback landscape is also poised for change, though the 2026 NFL Draft class appears to be largely focused on one standout prospect.

Projected Starting Quarterbacks for the 2026 NFL Season

Arizona Cardinals: Tua Tagovailoa

The Cardinals may explore trading Kyler Murray, potentially opting for Jacoby Brissett as a temporary starter while developing a younger quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa, after a down year in 2025, could be a bounce-back candidate, having previously maintained a passer rating of 101.1 or better for three consecutive seasons. First-year coach Mike LaFleur might view Tagovailoa as a bridge to a quarterback selected in the deeper 2027 NFL Draft.

Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr.

The Falcons are expected to move on from Kirk Cousins. The new leadership, including president of football Matt Ryan, general manager Ian Cunningham, and coach Kevin Stefanski, will decide whether to provide Penix another opportunity. Penix has shown arm talent and could benefit from Stefanski’s coaching, potentially improving upon his 59.6% completion rate, 2,757 yards, 12 touchdowns, and six interceptions in 12 starts. A veteran stopgap, such as Joe Flacco, could compete with Penix, particularly if concerns remain about his recovery from a torn ACL.

Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson

Despite missing four games due to injury last season, Lamar Jackson posted strong numbers for the Ravens. First-year coach Jesse Minter will be pleased to have the two-time MVP and three-time All-Pro at the helm.

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen

Josh Allen, the 2024 NFL MVP and a third-place finisher in 2025, will continue his pursuit of a Super Bowl title with the Bills, now under the guidance of coach Joe Brady.

Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young

The Panthers are planning to exercise Bryce Young’s fifth-year option, signaling their confidence in the No. 1 overall pick from the 2023 NFL Draft. Young showed improvement in his second season, achieving career-best marks in completion percentage (63.6%), passing yards (3,011), passing touchdowns (23), and passer rating (87.8), helping the Panthers reach the playoffs.

Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams came close to becoming the first 4,000-yard passer in Bears history and demonstrated progress in his first season with Ben Johnson. He led the Bears to an 11-6 record and a league-leading seven fourth-quarter comebacks, though accuracy remains an area for improvement (58.1% completion rate).

Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow

The Bengals’ success is heavily reliant on Joe Burrow’s health. The team went 5-3 with him and 1-8 without him. Keeping Burrow healthy for a full season will be a primary focus, as he has only completed a full season three times in his six NFL seasons.

Cleveland Browns: Kirk Cousins

Given Deshaun Watson’s substantial $80.7 million cap hit in 2026, the Browns will likely seek a more affordable option. Kirk Cousins, expected to be released by the Falcons, could be a solid veteran stopgap and mentor for Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel.

Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott rebounded strongly in 2025, completing 67.3% of his passes for 4,552 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Improving the Cowboys’ defense will be crucial to re-establishing them as a playoff contender.

Denver Broncos: Bo Nix

Bo Nix led the NFL with 612 passing attempts in his rookie season, leading the Broncos to a 14-3 record and an AFC Championship game appearance before suffering a broken ankle. He fits well in Sean Payton’s offense, which emphasizes short passing.

Detroit Lions: Jared Goff

Jared Goff silenced any doubts about his performance after Ben Johnson’s departure, completing 68% of his passes for 4,564 yards, 34 touchdowns, and eight interceptions, ranking fifth in EPA.

Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love

Jordan Love has led the Packers to nine wins and a playoff berth in each of his three seasons as the starting quarterback, posting a career-high 101.2 passer rating with just six interceptions last year.

Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud’s performance dipped slightly in the 2025 NFL playoffs, but he has still led the Texans to playoff appearances and a postseason victory in each of his first three seasons. The Texans will expect him to bounce back.

Indianapolis Colts: Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones had a surprising breakout season in 2025, beating out Anthony Richardson and posting career-best numbers. The Colts are likely to extend his contract, despite a torn Achilles injury.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence’s first season with Liam Coen was excellent, with his third 4,000-yard passing season and a career-best 29 passing touchdowns. Continued growth is expected as he and Coen prepare for a second season together.

Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes

Despite a career-worst 89.6 passer rating last season, Patrick Mahomes remains one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. His readiness for Week 1 after a torn ACL and the potential replacement for Gardner Minshew (set to be a free agent) are key questions.

Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza

With Dante Moore returning to Oregon, Fernando Mendoza is widely considered the top overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. He completed 72% of his passes for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, and six interceptions at Indiana, winning the Heisman Trophy and leading the Hoosiers to an undefeated season.

Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert

The Chargers’ primary focus will be to improve their offensive line to better protect Justin Herbert, who played behind one of the NFL’s worst lines in 2025.

Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford, the 2025 NFL MVP, has announced his intention to return for his age-38 season, giving the Rams another opportunity to compete for a Super Bowl.

Miami Dolphins: Malik Willis

The Dolphins’ new leadership may take a flier on Malik Willis, who has shown starter upside in limited action with the Packers. He has a 2-1 record as a starter and has not thrown an interception in his NFL career.

Minnesota Vikings: Derek Carr

The Vikings may bring in a veteran quarterback to compete with J.J. McCarthy. Derek Carr, who retired due to a shoulder injury, could consider a return if the situation is right.

New England Patriots: Drake Maye

Drake Maye enjoyed a breakout second season with the Patriots, finishing second in the NFL’s MVP voting. Despite a Super Bowl 60 loss, the Patriots remain encouraged by his progress.

New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough

Tyler Shough showed promise in his rookie season, leading the Saints to a 6-5 record while completing 67.6% of his passes.

New York Giants: Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart showcased his dual-threat ability, rushing for 489 yards and nine touchdowns while completing 63.7% of his passes.

New York Jets: Kyler Murray

The Jets may explore a trade for Kyler Murray, given their lack of a clear quarterback option in the 2026 NFL Draft and their available cap space and draft picks.

Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts remains a consistent and efficient quarterback for the Eagles, leading them to five consecutive playoff berths and a Super Bowl title.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers

There is an increasing possibility that Aaron Rodgers will return to Pittsburgh for a second season.

San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy has led the 49ers to the playoffs in two of his three seasons as a starter and will continue to be the team’s quarterback under Kyle Shanahan.

Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold led the Seahawks to a Super Bowl win and became just the second quarterback in NFL history to win 14 games in back-to-back seasons.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield had a solid season despite battling a shoulder injury, and the Buccaneers may look to build around him under a new offensive coordinator.

Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward

The Titans will expect Cam Ward to continue his development after a promising rookie season.

Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels

The Commanders will hope for a healthy return from Jayden Daniels after an injury-plagued sophomore season.