The Marine Corps’ Force Design 2030: A Framework for Modern Warfare
In 2019, Gen. David Berger, the 38th commandant of the Marine Corps, initiated Force Design 2030, a comprehensive modernization effort aimed at preparing the Corps for future conflicts, particularly those involving China. Force Design 2030 represents a significant shift from the focus on counterinsurgency operations that characterized the post-9/11 era. Central to this transformation is a renewed emphasis on wargaming as a critical tool for force planning, and development.
The Importance of Wargaming in Force Design
Berger identified wargaming as essential to the Marine Corps’ efforts, directing an increase in both the quality and quantity of these exercises. Over twenty major wargames, alongside several smaller simulations, were conducted in the first two years to inform the development of Force Design 2030. This approach draws lessons from historical wargames, such as those used in the interwar period to develop amphibious assault capabilities. Still, a standardized process for organizing and sequencing wargames to guide institutional changes had not previously been codified within the Marine Corps or the Department of Defense.
Wargames frequently inform requirements that drive the selection of both material and non-material solutions, often leading to substantial investments in manpower and equipment. Recognizing a historical underutilization of wargaming for “proofing” future concepts – defined as wargaming coupled with experimentation and analysis – Berger sought to integrate this practice more effectively. This observation extends beyond the Marine Corps, as the Department of Defense has also experienced rapid shifts in concepts with limited wargaming or testing, as seen in the development of the Joint Warfighting Concept.
The Cycle of Research and a Five-Phase Wargaming Framework
Peter Perla, a prominent figure in modern wargaming, described a “cycle of research” that highlights the interconnectedness of wargaming, exercises, analysis, real-world operations, and historical study. This cycle facilitates understanding present realities and evolving strategic thinking. Wargames draw insights from these other components and, in turn, feed insights back into them.
To improve the application of wargaming, a five-phase framework has been proposed:
Wargame 1 — Problem: Is There a Problem?
This initial phase focuses on strategic foresight, identifying potential future challenges that may require changes to the force. It employs systems thinking to understand interconnectedness and pinpoint areas of future vulnerability.
Wargame 2 — Operational Concept: Is There a Concept to Deal with this Problem?
This phase determines whether an existing or fresh operational concept can address the identified problem. It involves comparative analysis, testing a proposed concept against existing approaches.
Wargame 3 — Gaps: Can the Current Force be Used for the Future Concept?
This phase identifies gaps between current capabilities and those required to implement the operational concept. It focuses on discovering limitations and areas for improvement.
Wargame 4 — Capabilities Identification: What are the Requirements for New Capabilities?
This phase translates identified gaps into specific requirements for new capabilities, both material and non-material. It leverages quantitative analysis and collaboration with potential users and technology developers.
Wargame 5 — Potential Solutions: What Form Factors and Systems Best Match Needed Capabilities?
This final phase explores potential solutions and assesses their suitability for addressing the identified problem. It emphasizes design thinking and user feedback.
The Role of Leadership and Mission Engineering
The Department of Defense’s abolition of the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) amplified the role of service leadership in force planning. New guidance directs services to validate requirements in alignment with Joint-designated Key Operational Problems, utilizing a mission engineering approach. Wargaming is integral to mission engineering, embedding military utility into solution development and focusing on operational purpose. Technology should not define the future; future needs should define the focus of technology.
David Berger served as the 38th commandant of the Marine Corps from 2019 to 2023. He graduated from Tulane University and was commissioned into the United States Marine Corps in 1981.
Conclusion
The implementation of a formalized, five-phase wargaming framework will enhance coherence in force design and improve outcomes for capability development. By embracing a disciplined approach to inquiry, traceability, and institutional learning, the Department of Defense can better prepare for the challenges of modern warfare and ensure that investments are aligned with strategic priorities.