In the early months of the war in Ukraine, Gen. Mark Milley, then chair of the joint chiefs of staff, carried a note card in his briefcase outlining what he saw as the main priorities when it came to the US and NATO approach to the war.As reported by the Washington Post,they were: No.1: “Don’t have a kinetic conflict between the U.S. military and NATO with Russia.” No. 2: “Contain war inside the geographical boundaries of Ukraine.” No. 3: “Strengthen and maintain NATO unity.” No.4: “Empower Ukraine and give them the means to fight.”
The order is telling. supporting Ukraine has been a priority, but preventing escalation outside of Ukraine has frequently enough been a greater one, sometimes to the frustration of Ukrainian leaders who have at times felt that Western governments were too timid in supporting actions like long-range strikes into Russian territory. Milley is long gone from American leadership, but that attitude carried over with the return of President donald Trump, who has repeatedly expressed concerns that the conflict could escalate to World War III.So it’s been remarkable over the past week to see the degree to which NATO leaders appear to have come around to the view that NATO-Russia conflict – hopefully only limited conflict – may be unavoidable.
The reason is a series of increasingly brazen incursions into NATO airspace. On September 8, 21 russian drones entered polish territory where some of them were shot down by an unprecedented Polish-German-Italian-Dutch military operation.
It’s at least plausible, though somewhat hard to believe given the number of them, that those drones entered Polish airspace inadvertently while on their way to strike targets in Ukraine. Drones have periodically crossed into and crashed on the territory of several NATO countries bordering Ukraine since the start of the war. The fact that they were unmanned vehicles also made the situation easier to deescalate: that drones can be shot down without human casualties is one reason leaders are frequently enough willing to take more controversial or riskier actions with them. (In a notable 2023 incident, Russian jets collided with and
Russia’s Repeated Airspace Violations Raise Fears of Escalation
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Recent incursions by Russian aircraft into the airspace of NATO member states and neighboring countries are raising alarm bells, prompting discussions about a potential escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. These violations,often involving reconnaissance aircraft and,increasingly,drones,are being viewed as purposeful provocations by Moscow,testing the alliance’s resolve and unity.
The incidents have been notably frequent near the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Estonia. Last week, a russian fighter jet briefly entered Polish airspace, triggering the deployment of Polish and NATO fighter jets. Shortly after, Lithuania reported multiple violations of its airspace by Russian military aircraft.
These actions have elicited strong reactions from officials. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, when asked if NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft that enter their territory, responded, “Yes, I do,” on Tuesday. “Roger that,” Sikorski posted on X in response.
This comes amid a hawkish turn in donald Trump’s views on the war in Ukraine, which also included a Truth Social post arguing that Ukraine will be able to retake all of its original territory, contradicting recent statements from many of his own senior officials.
Perhaps the warnings will be enough to deter future Russian provocations. History suggests they will not. And if Russia persists, we appear to be headed for the type of clash that not so long ago was viewed as the nightmare scenario. The question is whether it can be contained.
Sending signals; testing unity
“Putin wants to signal to us,to say,’You Lithuanians,you Poles,if you continue to support Ukraine,the war will come to you. You will feel this,'” Eitvydas Bajarūnas, a veteran Lithuanian diplomat and former ambassador to Russia, told Vox.
The incursions have spurred calls for increased NATO investment in air defense and drone detection. They have also highlighted how Russia’s cheap, replaceable kamikaze drones can provide a strategic advantage. One Estonian official described them to the Associated Press as a “lottery ticket that always wins” – either they hit their target or the enemy has to down them with a missile that costs far more than the drone. European diplomats are planning for a meeting Friday to discuss planned investments in a so-called drone wall: a system of sensors, electronic warfare systems, and weapons to prevent further violations.
In the shorter term,the countries along NATO’s eastern border are planning for more Russian provocations. Lithuania’s parliament, such as, has authorized the country’s military to shoot down any drones violating its airspace starting in 2025.
NATO Considers Response to Repeated Russian Airspace Violations,Echoing 2015 Turkey Incident
Recent incursions of russian military aircraft into NATO airspace are prompting a critical debate within the alliance regarding a proportionate response. These violations, occurring frequently over Poland and the Baltic states, are raising concerns about potential escalation and testing the boundaries of NATO’s collective defense commitment. The situation echoes a 2015 incident involving Turkey and Russia, where a Russian jet was shot down, and is forcing policymakers to weigh the risks of both action and inaction.
Recent russian Airspace Violations and NATO Response
Over the past week, NATO has scrambled fighter jets multiple times to intercept Russian aircraft that entered airspace belonging to member states. On October 10,2023,Polish fighter jets were activated to intercept Russian aircraft,including a Tu-142 maritime patrol aircraft and Su-27 fighter jets,after they crossed into Polish airspace. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-scrambles-fighter-jets-after-russian-aircraft-enter-airspace-2023-10-10/ similar incidents have occurred over estonia and Latvia,prompting condemnation from NATO officials.
These incursions are not isolated events. NATO has reported a significant increase in Russian military activity near its borders since the start of the war in Ukraine. while Russia claims these flights are routine exercises,NATO views them as deliberate provocations designed to test the alliance’s readiness and response times. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has stated that the alliance is “vigilant” and will defend its airspace. https://www.nato.int/press-release/2023/10/11/secretary-general-statement-on-recent-airspace-violations/
The 2015 Turkey-Russia Plane Shootdown: A Precedent
The current situation draws parallels to November 2015, when Turkish forces shot down a Russian sukhoi Su-24 fighter jet over NATO member turkey after the aircraft briefly violated Turkish airspace while operating near the Syrian border. At the time, Russia was conducting airstrikes in Syria in support of the Assad regime. The incident led to a severe diplomatic crisis and raised fears of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
However, a full-scale conflict was avoided. Turkey and Russia restored relations in 2016 after Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, apologized for the incident. This outcome is often cited as an example of how to de-escalate tensions even in the face of serious provocations.
Weighing the Risks: Action vs. Inaction
NATO policymakers are now grappling with a similar dilemma. The growing consensus, according to reports, is that allowing repeated airspace violations to continue without a response could signal weakness and embolden further Russian aggression. As a senior fellow and NATO analyst at the Atlantic Council explained to Vox, “If the Europeans are repeatedly warning Russia not to violate its airspace over and over and over again, and nothing happens, then what kind of message does that send?” https://www.vox.com/2023/10/12/23914441/nato-russia-airspace-violations-poland-estonia-ukraine
However,a decisive military response,such as shooting down a Russian aircraft,carries significant risks of escalation. While NATO aims to contain the conflict within Ukraine’s borders,a direct engagement with Russian forces could broaden the war and lead to unpredictable consequences. The alliance is therefore exploring a range of options, including strengthening air defenses, increasing surveillance, and issuing stronger diplomatic warnings.
Key Takeaways
* Increased russian Provocations: Russia has significantly increased its military activity near NATO borders, including repeated airspace violations.
* Past Precedent: the 2015 Turkey-Russia incident serves as a cautionary tale and a potential model for de-escalation.
* Escalation Risk: A military response carries the risk