Tokyo Earthquake preparedness: Social Shifts Complicate Disaster response

In newly released damage estimates for a potential major earthquake directly beneath the Greater Tokyo Area, a working group of the Central Disaster Management Council highlighted the impact of social changes over the past decade.

The number of households in the capital region has grown, and the population has become more diverse, with increases in elderly residents and foreign nationals. At the same time, greater dependence on mobile devices has heightened the risk of communication outages and the rapid spread of misinformation.

‘A Disaster on a National Scale’

The report emphasizes not only the limits of structural disaster-prevention measures but also the importance of individuals viewing disaster preparedness as a personal duty.

At a press conference on December 19, Hitoshi ieda, Senior Professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) and deputy head of the working group, explained why an earthquake striking the Tokyo metropolitan area would constitute a disaster on a national scale.

“population density is a critical factor,” he noted. “A magnitude 7 earthquake can occur anywhere,but the damage is far greater where large numbers of people are concentrated.”

Changes in Housing

Over the past decade, disaster-prevention measures have made steady progress. The proportion of earthquake-resistant housing increased from 79% (estimated in fiscal 2008) to 90% (estimated in fiscal 2023). In addition, about 82% of the roughly 2,500 hectares of “highly dangerous densely built-up urban areas” identified in fiscal 2011 have been eliminated. As an inevitable result,total building damage from collapse and fire has been reduced by around 40%.

Though,due to population growth and higher at-home rates following the COVID-19 pandemic,the estimated number of fatalities has declined by only about 20%.