France’s Public-Private School Imbalance Widens Amid Declining Birth Rates

A recent study utilizing data from INSEE (the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) and the French Ministry of Education reveals a growing disparity between public and private schools in France, driven by a decline in birth rates since 2010. While private schools maintain stable enrollment numbers, public schools are absorbing the majority of the contraction, leading to an increased share of students in the private sector.

The Demographic Shift and Its Impact

France has experienced a notable decline in births. In Paris, for example, births fell by 32% between 2010 and 2024, from 31,440 to 21,484. This demographic shift is beginning to manifest in school enrollment figures.

Cours préparatoire (CP – the first year of primary school) enrollment began to decline six years after the start of the birth rate decline, experiencing a 19% decrease between 2016, and 2024. Sixième (6th grade – the first year of middle school) enrollment followed suit, falling by 10% between 2020 and 2024.

Private Schools Weather the Storm

In contrast to the public sector, private schools have demonstrated greater resilience. Between 2016 and 2024, CP enrollment in private schools decreased by only 3.8%, and 6th grade enrollment fell by just 1.4%, compared to declines of 24.4% and 14.4% in the public sector, respectively.

the share of students in private schools is increasing. In 2024, private schools account for 27.5% of CP enrollment (up from 23% in 2016) and 38.7% of 6th grade enrollment (up from 35.4% in 2020). Projections indicate this trend will continue, potentially reaching 33.6% in CP by 2030 and 49.4% in 6th grade by 2035.

Growing Social Polarization

The Institut de politique publique (IPP) warns that this development could exacerbate existing social inequalities. In 2024, 55% of 6th grade students from highly advantaged backgrounds attended private schools. This figure is projected to rise to 72% by 2035, while only 7% of disadvantaged students are expected to be in private schools.

Trends in Other Major Cities

Outside of Paris, the dynamic is similar but less pronounced and occurring with a time lag. The 19 largest cities outside Paris have experienced a more recent and less severe demographic decline (-17% between 2014 and 2024). The impact on CP enrollment is just beginning to emerge, with projected decreases of 5% to 15% between 2020 and 2024, with no visible impact yet on 6th grade entries.

The share of private school enrollment in CP increased from 19.1% to 19.8% between 2020 and 2024 and is forecast to reach 22.3% in 2030. For 6th grade, where 36.3% of students were in the private sector in 2024, this proportion could rise to 40.8% by 2035.

Key Takeaways

• A decline in birth rates in France is impacting school enrollment numbers.
• Public schools are absorbing the majority of the enrollment decline, while private schools maintain stability.
• The share of students in private schools is increasing, potentially exacerbating social inequalities.
• The trend is visible in Paris and, to a lesser extent, in other major French cities.