Europe Faces Summer Flight Cancellations Due to Jet Fuel Shortage

Flights across Europe could be disrupted starting in late May due to a growing jet fuel shortage, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The warning comes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting fuel supply chains, particularly in the Middle East.

IATA Warns of Potential Cancellations from End of May

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, stated on Friday that assessments from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicate Europe could begin seeing flight cancellations due to lack of jet fuel by the end of May. He noted that similar disruptions are already occurring in parts of Asia.

Walsh emphasized the need for authorities to develop well-communicated and coordinated plans in case fuel rationing becomes necessary, including measures for slot relief at airports.

Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Fuel Supplies

Analysts have linked the emerging shortage to the prolonged blockade of ships entering or exiting Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Initiated the naval blockade after peace talks with Iran collapsed, aiming to restrict Iran’s oil exports.

Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, warned that the situation could become systemic within three to four weeks, leading to severe flight cuts across Europe as early as May and June. He stressed that flight availability depends heavily on how many barrels of oil continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.

Rico Luman, senior economist at ING, added that vessels have stopped transporting supplies from the Middle East, forcing airlines to seek alternative sources that may not be immediately available.

Industry Urges Preparedness and Cooperation

IATA, which represents over 360 airlines accounting for approximately 85% of global air traffic, is urging governments and industry stakeholders to secure alternative supply lines and prepare contingency plans. The organization continues to monitor the situation closely and provide updates through official channels.

As of April 17, 2026, no widespread cancellations have been reported, but industry experts agree that the risk of disruption is increasing without timely intervention to stabilize jet fuel supplies.