The biggest Super Saturday of the season lived up to the billing, shaking up the finals race and splitting the contenders in two with six weeks remaining.
This is The Run home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.
Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder,and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games? See our predicted final ladder below.
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How dose The Run home work?
We’re trying to predict who makes the eight, but it’s more complicated than just running a ladder predictor.
The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those percentages to give each team a projected win total.
For example,we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. But if it’s an almost certain blowout,it might be 90-10,so the favorite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.
It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to simply tip wins and losses, as no-one can tip nine every round.
It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can accurately predict anyway.
At least one team will end up much higher or lower than we’re predicting. But think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 100 times.’ loss to GWS has pulled them back to the pack and they’ll need help to pass both Adelaide and Brisbane for second.The Suns have the game-in-hand and if they can just beat the five teams below them left on their fixture, that’s 16 wins… and it’s hard to miss top four with 16 wins;
– It’s unlikely,though possible,any of the dogs,Giants,Hawks or Dockers can pinch a top-four spot now. Instead they’re desperately trying to reach 14 wins and hoping one of the other members of the quartet cannot. The Giants are the most likely to survive. The Dogs have the best percentage so they’re safe if they get there, but have one fewer win on the board so their upside and downside are both higher. The Hawks and Dockers have the hardest draws;
– We reckon the two most important games left this season are the Dogs’ games at Marvel against the Giants (Round 21) and Dockers (Round 24).If the Dogs can just win one of them, they have a great chance of playing finals at the expense of the team they beat. Otherwise they almost certainly miss finals altogether.
– This weekend’s results were basically the worst possible combination for any bottom nine team hoping to make a miracle run into September. Sorry, Sydney.
Cerra’s Tribunal date sparks debate | 01:47
Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order (2. BRISBANE LIONS (12-4-1, 116.8%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba
Round 20: Gold Coast Suns at People First stadium
Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Round 22: Sydney Swans at the Gabba
Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 24: Hawthorn at the Gabba
Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest
Alright, the Lions are starting to look a lot more like their late-2024 selves now. Admittedly Carlton’s constant blunders made things look a bit more cozy at halftime than they really were,but brisbane pulled away from there,and their away form since halfway through last season is genuinely notable. They would never prefer playing a big final away from the Gabba, but at the very least, the prospect shouldn’t scare them. The only reason left for concern here is the fixture, which is still very tricky; that Carlton game was problably the easiest one they had left. As they don’t have any virtually-certain wins on their draw we’re still projecting the Lions to slip out of second; the Crows have an easier draw, and the Cats have an even easier one than them, so it’s more likely the Lions stumble a couple of times. But they control their destiny – which is a big improvement on last year! – and playing at the level we’ve seen over the past few weeks, it would be surprising if Brisbane dropped out of the top four completely.
fox Footy’s projection: 15.65 wins, finishing 3rd4. GEELONG (11-6, 127.8%)
Remaining games
Round 19: St Kilda at GMHBA Stadium
Round 20: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium
Round 22: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium
Round 23: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Round 24: Richmond at the MCG
Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest
Just like that, their lead in the race for second spot has evaporated; fittingly having lost twice to Brisbane this year, they’re now well behind the premiers, having now lost twice to GWS this year. (If they can just avoid the Lions and Giants in the finals bracket they should be fine!) While the Cats have a substantially easier remaining draw than the Lions, fixture difficulty cannot make up for a one-and-a-half win gap, which actually means Geelong must win two additional games over their last six to catch Brisbane. That is certainly possible; the Cats should be favoured in all six of their remaining games whereas the Lions play five contenders plus the improved Swans. Adelaide might be an even bigger problem, with a reasonable percentage lead and an easier draw than the Lions have. At some point the other teams around them should stumble, putting the Cats back in a strong position, but we can’t guarantee that. It would still be odd if the Cats missed the top four but the weekend’s results have made finishing in the top two quite a bit harder.
Fox Footy’s projection: 15.45 wins,finishing 4th
HAWTHORN (11-6,116.8%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Port Adelaide at UTAS Stadium
Round 20: Carlton at the MCG
Round 21: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval
Round 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Round 23: Melbourne at the MCG
Round 24: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest
For the neutral fan, Freo beating Hawthorn was great, as it keeps the finals race interesting. But it’s not great for the Hawks. They’re still in a solid position but can’t afford to drop too many more games, especially the three where they’ll be favoured against the Power, Blues and Demons. Win those three, and get to 14 wins, and the Hawks are likely but nowhere near definitely safe. Pinching a 15th win would be handy but that involves beating a top-four team at their home ground… which, to be fair, is something they’re gonna need to do in September anyway if they’re gonna be legit contenders. For now, the Hawks simply must get the job done over the next two weeks. Bank the two wins, let other teams make mistakes and fall behind, and let them face the pressure of winning to stay in the finals race.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.1 wins, finishing 8th
8. FREMANTLE (11-6, 109.3%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Round 20: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Round 21: Carlton at Optus Stadium
Round 22: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 23: Brisbane Lions at Optus stadium
Round 24: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest
The Dockers’ comeback win over the Hawks was the most important of the weekend, after all other results had gone against them. While they still have a tough path to September footy they’re in the pack of bottom-half-of-the-eight contenders rather than well behind them. And look; Fremantle really should get to 14 wins now! Beating the Eagles, Blues and Power is incredibly doable and there are certainly scenarios where 14 wins is enough. But with their percentage, it’s not a lock, especially since if they’re stuck on 14 they’d presumably be losing to the Bulldogs (and thus falling behind them). So to be absolutely confident fremantle will play finals,they need to beat one of Collingwood,Brisbane or the Dogs. Lose all three, which is what we’d predict if we were straight up tipping every game, and the Dockers are more likely to miss than make finals. That Round 24 game is inching closer towards being a true elimination final…
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.05 wins, finishing 9th10. SYDNEY SWANS (8-9, 94.2%)
remaining games
Round 19: North Melbourne at the SCG
Round 20: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium
Round 21: Essendon at the SCG
Round 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Round 23: Geelong at the SCG
Round 24: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest
They survived the Saints test, but pretty much everything else this weekend went against the Swans, with the most likely teams they could catch (Gold Coast, GWS and Fremantle) all winning their matches. They can’t catch the Bulldogs on percentage meaning the Swans are still three games (and a healthy chunk of percentage) outside the eight with six rounds left. The miracle recovery probably wasn’t happening last week, and it very very probably isn’t happening now.
Fox footy’s projection: 11.55 wins, finishing 10th14.ESSENDON (6-10, 76.5%)
Remaining games
Round 19: GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium
Round 20: Western bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Round 22: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium
Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 24 Part 1: Carlton at the MCG
Round 24 Part 2: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest
They can still get to 13 wins… in some alternate timeline where Brad Scott invents the Instant Injury Recovery Ray and zaps the bazillion Bombers players who are hurt,and the ray also has the side effect of making them way better at footy.
Fox Footy’s projection: 7.8 wins, finishing 15th
‘Quite frankly it’s very hard to coach’ | 11:27
WON’T OR CAN’T PLAY FINALS
12. CARLTON (6-11, 93.7%)
Remaining games
AFL 2025: The Run Home – Predicted Ladder & Finals Matchups (After Round 18)
15. ST KILDA (5-12, 86.2%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium
Round 20: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: north Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: richmond at the MCG
Round 23: Essendon at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: GWS Giants at ENGIE stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest
Fox Footy’s projection: 8 wins, finishing 14th## Richmond’s Emerging Talent Shines Despite a Hard-Fought Victory
The Richmond Football Club demonstrated resilience and potential in a recent match, securing a win that, while not aesthetically pleasing, highlighted the growth of its younger players. Coach Adem yze expressed considerable pride in the team’s performance, especially focusing on the contributions of emerging talents despite a challenging contest.
### A Game Defined by Grit, Not Grace
The match itself was characterized by intense physicality and a struggle for dominance. While the final score reflected a Richmond victory, the game lacked the fluidity and precision often associated with top-tier AFL performances. Instead,it was a display of determination and a willingness to compete,qualities Yze emphasized as crucial for a developing team. This echoes a broader trend in the AFL this season, where contested possession and defensive pressure are increasingly dictating outcomes. Currently, league-wide contested possession numbers are up 4.7% compared to the same period last year[[2]], indicating a league-wide shift towards a more brutal style of play.### The Rise of Richmond’s Next Generation
Yze specifically lauded the efforts of several young players who stepped up under pressure. These individuals showcased not only skill but also a maturity beyond their years, contributing considerably to the team’s ability to withstand a determined opponent. This focus on youth progress is a strategic cornerstone for Richmond, mirroring the successful rebuilds seen in other clubs like Geelong and Brisbane in recent years. Instead of relying on established stars, Richmond is investing in a future built on homegrown talent.
The team’s approach to developing these players involves a comprehensive program encompassing on-field coaching, strength and conditioning, and mental skills training. This holistic approach aims to equip young athletes with the tools they need to succeed at the elite level. The current AFL landscape demands players who are not only physically gifted but also mentally resilient and tactically astute.
### Looking Ahead: Building on a Foundation of Resilience
While acknowledging the areas for improvement, Yze remained optimistic about the team’s trajectory. The win serves as a valuable learning experience, demonstrating the importance of perseverance and teamwork. the coach stressed the need to maintain this competitive spirit as the season progresses, focusing on refining skills and building a cohesive team dynamic.Richmond’s upcoming schedule presents a mix of challenging and winnable matches. Success will hinge on the continued development of its young core and the ability to consistently execute its game plan.The club’s long-term vision is clear: to build a lasting premiership contender through a combination of strategic recruitment, diligent development, and a unwavering commitment to team success.