That the USA had doubts about the usefulness of the Aukus, the military alliance between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia for the control of the Indo-Pacific, had been made known since first months of the second Trump administration. The US Congress has now put on paper what had been feared: Australia may never receive the promised Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs).
The so-called Pillar 1 of the agreement, signed with great fanfare in 2021, was not just an arms sale, but a paradigm of geopolitical management. It involved the rotational deployment of US and British submarines to Australia, as well as the sale of first 3 and then 5 Virginia-class submarines to Canberra. To this would be added, prospectively, the construction of a new class of British-Australian vessels.
However, despite the superficial reassurances provided by the Trump administration at the end of 2025, the dossier arrived on the benches of Congress at end of January tells a different story. There is only one password, even in this case: America First. The issue is, in fact, whether in the future the Stars and Stripes shipyards will be able to guarantee two Virginia SSNs every year to the US fleet or not.
The US shipbuilding industry is experiencing a chronic crisis: lack of skilled labor, out-of-control costs and a fleet that is aging faster than it is being renewed. If compared with the capabilities of the Chinese one (and we don’t do it, the US documents themselves do it) it risks causing Washington to lose supremacy in the Pacific.
According to the text sent to Congress, the number of operational SSNs will reach an all-time low of 47 submarines in 2030, before rising again to 64 or 66 units by 2054. These estimates do not take into account the sale of vessels to Australia, as if to say that this transaction will not happen. The document instead hints at an alternative of division of labor (and greater Australian commitment to its own defence).
Instead of selling the submarines, Congress thinks about the possibility of maintaining the ownership and management of the SSNs, which would be called upon to carry out both US and Australian missions, while Canberra would take care of expanding military, naval and non-naval capabilities, so as to strengthen projection into the Pacific (in part, an agreement had already been found in this sense in October).
The decision still to be made is that of sharing the technologies necessary to produce the British-Australian SSNs which would then have to replace the US vehicles. One option could be to continue to ensure the carrying out of missions on behalf of Canberra by assets that remain in the firm possession of Washington. And in the latter case the fleet of SSN Virginia would be increased by an additional 8 submarines.
Beyond the technical issues, it seems clear that this remodulation of the commitment to the Aukus responds perfectly to what was written in the new National Defense Strategy (NDS). The “allies” will be called upon to pay for their defense themselves, and in this case it is even clear how the United States is pressuring Australia to make the investments necessary to guarantee the projection of the Pentagon in the Pacific.
Furthermore, this projection is no longer aimed at the defense of partners, but at an overall maintenance of war supremacy on the various scenarios, so as to be sure of guaranteeing ourselves “a dignified peace, on conditions favorable to the Americans but which China can also accept and submit to“, as we read in the NDS. In short, a peace that crystallizes an imperialist domination.
The Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, has also stated that he wants to bring the port of Darwin, an important gateway to the Pacific, back under the control of his country, after it was entrusted to a company controlled by a Chinese group for 99 years. The topic was presented as belonging to the sphere of national security.
But the fact remains that US attention is shifting, rather than on individual dossiers, on the capabilities deployed along the First Island Chain, which runs from the Japanese coasts to those of Malaysia. Taiwan is also paying the price for this new strategic attitude, without exception. The Aukus, from an alliance for actors involved in the Indo-Pacific, is transformed into a platform for US choices. Canberra (but also London) can’t do much about it.
– © Reproduction possible WITH EXPLICIT CONSENT of the CONTROPIANO EDITORIAL TEAM
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date: 2026-02-11 08:13:00