Morgan Stanley: Recession Fears Overblown,We’re in a New Bull Market
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There’s growing concern that teh U.S. may be headed for a recession, but Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson has stated that the economy was actually in a “rolling recession” for the past three years.
The End of the Bear Market
According to Wilson, this period ended with the significant stock market selloff in April, triggered by former President Donald Trump’s unexpected “Liberation Day” tariffs. He shared this assessment with Bloomberg TV on Thursday.
“Now we’re in a new bull market, and capital markets activity is just another sign that that analysis, or that conclusion, is probably correct,” Wilson explained.
Supporting Indicators
Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer and head of equity strategy, points to increased capital markets activity as further evidence supporting his claim.This suggests a renewed confidence and willingness to invest, signaling a shift away from the defensive posture typical of a bear market.
What is a “Rolling Recession”?
A rolling recession isn’t a broad economic downturn affecting all sectors simultaneously. Rather, it involves different parts of the economy experiencing recessionary conditions at different times. This can make it harder to detect and address, as overall economic indicators might not instantly reflect the underlying weakness in specific industries.
Implications for Investors
The declaration of a new bull market has significant implications for investors. It suggests a potential chance to re-enter the market or increase exposure to equities. However, investors should remain cautious and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
Key Takeaways
- The U.S. economy has likely moved past a three-year “rolling recession.”
- The April stock market selloff,prompted by tariff announcements,marked the end of the bear market.
- Increased capital markets activity supports the transition to a new bull market.
- Investors should exercise caution and conduct due diligence.
Publication Date: 2025/08/10 01:40:22