Three months have passed since the U.S. naval deployment in the Caribbean, and the crisis with Venezuela remains unresolved. While opposition leader María Corina Machado participates in international economic forums promoting the contry’s investment potential, Donald Trump – her main ally – maintains an ambiguous stance on the next steps.

Meanwhile, over 600,000 Venezuelans in the United States have lost the protection of the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and are now at risk of being deported. Maduro is facing the most severe crisis of his mandate, yet each passing day is another day in power, even as the arrival of the USS Gerald Ford in Caribbean waters and the launch of Operation Southern Spear seem to signal an imminent checkmate.

From Boston, Carlos Blanco, 78, observes the situation calmly, without rushing to conclusions. for years, he has been one of Machado’s main advisers, though his political career began long before that: in the 1980s, he took on the task of reforming the Venezuelan state to free it from the personalism, concentration of power, and corruption inherited from venezuela’s oil rentier system. As minister for state reform in Carlos andrés Pérez’s second government, he rose to prominence. His project was just beginning to bear fruit when Hugo Chávez emerged with a military coup that catapulted him to the presidency six years later. Despite his redemptive and revolutionary rhetoric, Chávez did not eradicate the country’s ills – he multiplied them. His successor,nicolás Maduro,has deepened the abyss.

All of this matters as, if a transition in Venezuela ultimately occurs, it will require extensive experience to prevent it from descending into a new authoritarianism or further chaos.Blanco has spent nearly two decades outside the country, but he has not missed a single moment of its recent history. He is one of Machado’s closest strategists and interlocutors and could become a key figure in the arduous task of rebuilding a country devastated by a quarter-century of Chavismo.

Question. the change being discussed in Venezuela is very specifically a regime change. What would you say to Venezuelans who have expectations of that change?

Answer. Today there is a new wave of support for change in Venezuela. Even though there have been several attempts at change in the last 25 years, a real transition was never achieved. Now, four factors make it more feasible: the 2023 primary elections [where 2.4 million Venezuelans voted] and the 2024 presidential elections [where opposition candidate Edmundo gonzález was recognized as the winner by the U.S. and other countries] strengthened international and national confidence in the opposition leadership. A popular institution has emerged that remains active, despite having to go underground due to the repression following the theft of the July 28 elections.

International support,currently led by the United States,has intensified. this support began with Clinton long before Trump. It was maintained under all subsequent administrations. Today it is stronger than ever and has gained strength from the U.S. military operation in the Caribbean against the Cartel of the Suns.

The fourth element is the regime’s internal fracture: there are important divisions both in the political sphere – including former allies of Chavismo such as the Communist Party – and within the armed forces and police, although repression by the General Directorate of Military Intelligence (DGCIM) has managed to contain them.

The regime’s main support comes from the police and military structure, along with some armed groups. They are not millions of militia members, as is claimed, but only a few thousand. They can generate terror, but they cannot sustain power. The sum of these factors is driving political change in Venezuela.

Q. There are two main scenarios for what could happen in a transition. One is that an opposition government would go after Chavismo and its facilitators, conducting a major reckoning and dismantling its corrupt framework. The other is that Venezuela would magically be fixed, and we would return to the idyllic, imagined community that existed before Chavismo.

A. It is a very good issue to bring up because

Venezuela’s Path Forward: Rebuilding Hope and Confronting Criminality – An Interview with a Presidential Candidate

The challenges facing Venezuela are immense, demanding a comprehensive strategy focused on rebuilding the nation and restoring faith in its future. This requires prioritizing investments in infrastructure, education, health, and housing – areas that drive advancement and address urgent social needs. the situation, in many ways, mirrors the aftermath of a major war, like World War II. Just as hope was rekindled when devastated cities began to be rebuilt, Venezuela needs to empower its population to look forward with optimism.

Confronting Crime and Organized Crime

The scale of criminality in Venezuela is daunting, encompassing guerrillas, mining mafias, drug traffickers, and corrupt military personnel. The immediate priority will be the release of nearly 900 political prisoners, executed in an organized manner that ensures their safety from the outgoing regime. Crucially,this must be coupled with urgent institutional reforms,notably a restructuring of the Armed Forces to re-establish respected command structures.

Bodies like the DGCIM, deeply entrenched in corruption and linked to organized crime, require intervention. Though,it’s vital to leverage the loyalty of honest officers who remain within other police forces,including those who have resisted or even been imprisoned for doing so. Throughout this process, adherence to the Constitution and the laws is paramount, maintaining order and peace.

Navigating International Dynamics and U.S. Policy

The situation is further complicated by external factors, particularly the role of the United States and the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s commitment to Venezuela. Concerns exist that Washington’s accusations against Nicolás Maduro – alleging leadership of the Cartel of the Suns and the Tren de Aragua – may be a pretext for more aggressive measures, including potential military intervention in the Caribbean or a regime change operation.

Though, the roots of Venezuela’s criminal entanglement run deep. Collaboration with the FARC began during the Chávez government, facilitating drug trafficking through Venezuela with the active participation of military personnel and government ministers, ostensibly to weaken “imperialism.” This created a network of complicity that permeated the military and police structure.The armed Forces were reorganized into regional “viceroyalties” dedicated to drug trafficking – the origin of the term “Cartel of the Suns,” which predates Chavismo and describes the close relationship between the military hierarchy and drug trafficking, a relationship that intensified under Maduro.

The Tren de Aragua: A Decade of Terror

The Tren de Aragua represents another critical challenge. The regime utilized this group as an instrument of terror, allowing it to expand nationally and internationally, with cells now operating in Spain, the United States, and across Latin America. The regime has been implicated in ordering assassinations through the Tren de Aragua, such as that of Lieutenant Ronald Ojeda in Chile, and in the trafficking of Venezuelan migrant women.

For over a decade,Venezuelans have suffered the effects of this gang,driving mass emigration. while the Tren de Aragua might potentially be a recent concern for the international community, it has been a defining factor in the lives of Venezuelans for years.

The reality in Venezuela is not simply a dictatorship in the traditional sense – like those of Pérez Jiménez, Somoza, and Pinochet – but a criminal organization that has permeated the state, where crime and corruption have become the political engines driving a strategy of international expansion.

Venezuela’s Path Forward: An Interview with a Key Opposition Figure

The allegation that maduro leads the Cartel of the Suns mainly serves as an international political tool rather than the result of an independent judicial examination. At the same time,the opposition,through María corina Machado and edmundo gonzález,has maintained a discreet and pragmatic approach to the TPS issue for months. Unfortunately, we have not obtained the desired results. But that cannot lead us to attempt to dictate U.S. immigration policy.we will not use our migration tragedy to confront the main international ally of the democratic movement. Though, the offer made by Edmundo González and María Corina Machado, for which they can be held fully accountable, is that only the freedom of Venezuela will allow for the true protection of the nearly 9 million Venezuelan migrants scattered around the world.

Q. the viability of the transition hinges on Trump, a volatile and erratic leader. It is crucial that decisions be made within weeks; otherwise, the momentum will fizzle out. Maduro seems to be reading Trump and shows no signs of negotiating despite the pressure. What are your thoughts on these factors?

A. The United States has already accepted that negotiating with Maduro is futile and has halted attempts at rapprochement, such as Richard Grenell’s. Trump, more than a cause, is a reflection of current conditions in the United States and the world: societies opt for disruptive leaders when seeking profound changes, with mixed results, as happened with Chávez. For Venezuelans, requesting international support is legitimate and necessary; the fight for freedom cannot rest solely on one society. Simón Bolívar also turned to foreign powers when he fought for independence.It is a duty to seek external support, especially from the United States, given its global influence.

Q. Isn’t that interventionism?

A. The war has been international as Hezbollah, Russia, the ELN, the FARC, and Cuba became involved in Venezuela. We have the support of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and various Latin American nations. Each contributes what it can. Costa Rica and Ecuador have designated the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization; the United States is deploying a military fleet. the goal is to force Maduro to leave. If this doesn’t happen, things will get worse for him and the regime.

Q. You are considered María Corina Machado’s right-hand man, but you have a long career. In the 1980s and 1990s, you were a technocrat and minister who spearheaded state reforms and institutional modernization. Taking into account everything we’ve discussed, what are the biggest challenges for rebuilding Venezuela?

A. I am just another member of María Corina’s strategic team. That’s what happens to those of us who have lived a long time. My story, in fact, is a long one: as a child, I lived through the unforgettable experience of the fall of the Pérez Jiménez dictatorship, and later I experienced other significant periods, such as the democratic struggle and the reform processes, some successful and others not. Today, Venezuela needs to recover its democracy and create solid and transparent institutions. the current movement has the chance to propel society toward greater awareness. Civic responsibility consists not only of rights but, above all, of duties, particularly among public servants. I hope that this task can be successfully undertaken.

Q. Political scientist https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/03/opinion